MLB Picks

After hitting a solid 23 homers last season, Ian Happ has gotten off to a great start in 2026 with three dingers in seven games.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi was poor in his first game this season, giving up six hits, one homer, and six earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings. The right-hander allowed 24 homers in 23 starts last year.

Parker Messick shut out the Dodgers in his opening start and gets a Cubs offense that has scored fewer than three runs in three of their last five contests.

The Guardians’ sticks should get the best of Edward Cabrera and his history of command issues.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 14th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Miguel Rojas is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.. Miguel Rojas has been pinch hit for 29% of the time when starting against a lefty hurler since the start of last season.. The #3 park in the league for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Miguel Rojas will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Luis Garcia Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.. The weather forecast expects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Luis Garcia Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Roki Sasaki today.

Cody Bellinger has crossed the plate in six of his eight games this season, in large part because he’s drawing walks at a rate of over 17% and posting a .361 xwOBA. Getting on base in front of Ben Rice and Giancarlo Stanton just raises the odds of coming around the bases. 

The Yankees are facing RHP Chris Paddack, who primarily throws only a fastball and changeup to LHB. He got rocked in his first start this season, allowing eight earned and two HR in just 4 IP.

That won’t get the job done against the likes of Rice, whose ISO of .476 vs. RHP this season sits fifth in the majors. He and Stanton both rank in the Top 15 this season in wRC+ vs. RHP as well.

If Bellinger gets on base, one of them will bring him home—if he doesn’t go deep himself.

Saturday was the day for the Marlins to get the Yankees. Ryan Weathers has now given up four of the seven runs allowed by Yankee starters this year. Even with his struggles, the starting rotation has turned in a 1.47 ERA.

Sunday’s starter, Max Fried, has not given up a run through two starts this season. He’s strung together 13 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 10 and allowing just five hits.  

Walker Buehler is a proven veteran arm and is coming off a tough start, but Ranger Suarez is a gas can that the Padres' lineup can hammer for a solid road win.

Expect a bounce-back outing for Buehler and a Padres plus-money victory. 

When assessing his BABIP ability, Roman Anthony is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 stadium in MLB for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (79%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for hitters.

Long-balls are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest in MLB.. Given Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Marcell Ozuna will be at a massive disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish today.. Putting up a lowly an 85.6-mph average exit velocity in the last week, Marcell Ozuna has been in a slump in recent games.. Posting a .232 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Marcell Ozuna finds himself in the 25th percentile.. In notching a .221 batting average since the start of last season, Marcell Ozuna is positioned in the 15th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 11th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 38%.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.. Salvador Perez's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 24.4 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.26 ft/sec now.

Gary Sanchez's BABIP ability is projected in the 3rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. When starting against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, Gary Sanchez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 24% of the time.. Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 38%.. Gary Sanchez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.2% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's deepest LF fences today.. Gary Sanchez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

Nick Fortes's BABIP ability is projected in the 1st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Fortes is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.. When starting against a northpaw since the start of last season, Nick Fortes has been pinch hit for 17% of the time.. The 9th-deepest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Target Field.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the 5th-lowest level of all games on the slate at 50°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).

Matt Wallner has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season.. The 9th-deepest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Target Field.. The league's 5th-tallest average fence height can be found at Target Field.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to drop to the 5th-lowest level of all games on the slate at 50°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Matt Wallner's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 26.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 23.14 ft/sec now.

Addison Barger has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 14% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound since the start of last season.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 48°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Addison Barger will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. In the last week's worth of games, Addison Barger has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #5 stadium in MLB for boosting offensive stats to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Guaranteed Rate Field has the smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for dingers.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 16.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Will Benson is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Will Benson has been pulled from the game early 25% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

Will Benson is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Will Benson has been pulled from the game early 25% of the time.. Globe Life Field ranks as the #29 field in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. Out of every team today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.

 In just 20 plate appearances vs. RHP this season, Kyle Schwarber has already crushed three bombs, driven in five runs, and drawn five walks.

He’s expected to have a strong day—so much so that three H/R/R carries -145 juice. That’s why I love getting his RBI prop at -125, especially in the thin air at Coors Field.

Against RHP so far this season, Schwarber is rocking a whopping .714 ISO  and a 288 wRC+. His counterpart on Sunday, Tomoyuki Sugano, often pitches to contact and allowed 1.93 HR/9 last season.

While he looked decent in his opening start, he couldn’t get through five innings and still coughed up a dinger. He also posted an ERA that was half of his xERA and xFIP metrics.

This matchup sets up very well for Schwarber to drive in a run for the fifth straight game. 

When it comes to his home run skill, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Brenton Doyle has big-time HR ability (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.. Brenton Doyle will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Yes, it’s a repeat from yesterday. Except it’s at even better odds, and I’m not turning that down.

Not against a pitcher in Jacob Lopez who ranked in the Bottom 5th percentile last season in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate. In his first start this season, he walked five batters in four innings which set up Atlanta’s hitters with run-scoring opportunities.

He’s now facing a Houston team that has already drawn 50 walks this season. Alvarez drew four of them himself yesterday—and still managed to drive in a run in his only registered at-bat.

Alvarez is fourth in the bigs with a .462 ISO in the early season. Split against LHP, that number jumpts to .571 in 18 plate appearances. 

Plus-odds for an RBI from the guy sitting second in wRC+ and leading the league with a .604 xwOBA is a gift, and one I’ll happily accept. 

2025 was a year to forget for Yordan Alvarez, who hit just six dingers in 48 games due to a fracture in his hand. The Houston Astros slugger is finally back to full health, and he’s already gone yard three times in nine games.

Alvarez has been smashing the baseball with six extra-base hits, a .423 batting average, and an .885 slugging percentage.

Webb’s strong performance at home, combined with a likely Soto-less Mets lineup, means New York likely won’t have another offensive outburst after plating 19 runs in the last two games. 

San Francisco has been the worst team in the league against RHP (44 wRC+) and have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their nine contests this season. 

Each of the first three games of this series cashed the Over 7.5, but here’s betting on an Under in the finale. The Mets have hit the Under in 28 of their last 45 away games, and Oracle’s Park is a pitcher’s best friend. 

Logan Webb is a beast at Oracle Park, sporting a career 2.92 ERA and 2.71 FIP across a massive sample size of 552 ⅓ IP.

The New York Mets have the better lineup, but the gap closes with Juan Soto likely out of the lineup after receiving an MRI on Saturday. 

It’s been a slow start offensively for the San Francisco Giants, but things will pick up sooner or later, as 1–7 in the lineup is certainly league-caliber. Kodai Senga has never figured out his walk problem (11.1% career walk rate) and is a beatable opponent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Luke Raley is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The #7 park in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.

When it comes to his home run ability, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #7 park in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 6th-strongest of the day for bats.

When estimating his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 19° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 19° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi pitched to a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He got rocked in his season debut and now he faces a Cubs lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and is due for positive regression. The Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the hill. He had a 3.73 ERA last year but his FIP was significantly worse at 4.86. He also has a tendency to get hit hard and struggled in his season debut. 

The Guardians are sending Slade Cecconi to the mound after he surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. He had a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs respond with southpaw Shota Imanaga who pitched to a 3.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP last year. Both teams are struggling at the dish but the Cubs were significantly more productive last year. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate while the Guardians are 27th. Expect the Cubs big bats to break out against Cecconi.

Spencer Torkelson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the coldest weather of all games today at 42°.. Hitting from the same side that Kyle Leahy throws from, Spencer Torkelson meets a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the coldest weather of all games today at 42°.. Nolan Gorman pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences today.. Nolan Gorman will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. This year, there has been a decline in Nolan Gorman's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 23.28 ft/sec currently.