Best NFL Picks Today

The Patriots enter Week 10 allowing the second most “explosive” passes of 20+ yards and are also missing defenders in the secondary, with DB Carlton Davis III out and DB Charles Woods and safety Kevin Byard questionable.
For his career, St. Brown is one of the most dangerous WRs versus man coverage and will face plenty of it from a Patriots secondary running man schemes at the second highest rate. St. Brown’s projections for Week 10 sit between 78 and 96 receiving yards, with my forecast coming out to 84 yards in Germany.

 

This yardage prop is in play up to 52% because a breakout game is coming for Rice. He’s recorded a respectable 102 receiving yards over the past two weeks despite an unsustainably low 1.3 aDOT. Rice paced the NFL in yards after the catch per reception with an 8.1 mark last season, and his 8.2 YAC/REC this year is right in line for the game-breaking playmaker. Plus, with the Falcons allowing nine wideouts to top 60 receiving yards through nine games, the matchup checks out for Rice, too.

With the Jets allowing the highest EPA per dropback across the past four weeks, my first Week 10 click is on the Bills. New York is a candidate to unload veterans ahead of the trade deadline, and Buffalo heads into Monday Night Football in Week 9 averaging the most points per game while ranking third in offensive DVOA. The Bills pull away in Week 10, and I suspect this number will dip closer to a double-digit spread by Sunday.

This is available at 8.46x despite the trades that sent Keenan Allen to San Francisco and Josh Downs to Kansas City. That opens the door for Ashton Dulin to take on a larger role after scoring a TD last week. He's listed as a starting WR on the current depth chart and should see an increase in snaps. Head coach Shane Steichen also mentioned that Dulin and the other receivers will absorb those routes, with plenty of opportunities to go around. The Colts could be playing with great field position all game, with Kyle McCord starting under center for the Dolphins and unlikely to move the ball consistently. Any starting outside WR against Miami shouldn't be priced longer than 6x. This is great value created by the trades. At least we know Dulin cares about football in Indianapolis.

Tucker Kraft is popular target, drawing nine passes inside the 20-yard line for seven receptions and three touchdowns. Kraft does his best work against zone coverage which is something Brian Flores utilizes almost exclusively and may catch a break if Cashman sits, as he’s Minnesota’s top coverage linebacker. Touchdown forecasts for Green Bay’s TE range from 30% to 40% in Week 10.

I got this at 5.35x, but it's a good buy down to 5x and shouldn't be priced much longer than Darren Waller, who is currently at 4.3x. Tommy Tremble played more snaps than Waller last week, which is particularly important given that the Panthers were playing from behind early. Tremble finished with six targets and four receptions, including a 10-yard touchdown. He also saw two red-zone targets in that loss and is tied with Waller for the team lead in red-zone opportunities. The Saints remain one of five teams allowing 27+ points per game this season, and the indoor environment only adds to the appeal of the Panthers' passing game.

This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans defense has been torched for a staggering 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 10th-worst in the league.. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 9.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.. As it relates to defensive ends pass-rushing, Tennessee's unit has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in football.

Nico Collins is an absolute nightmare to deal with, and Cleveland's middling secondary is going to have its issues. Collins has four touchdowns in six games this season, and with Stroud coming off a five-touchdown clinic, that connection is looking as dangerous as ever. Give Collins an inch in the red zone, and he'll make you pay. Despite missing time, Collins is still 10th in the NFL with 10 red-zone targets, let's see some volume inside the 20 here.

I recommend Charbonnet to find the end zone up to 50%. The Raiders have surrendered nine touchdowns to opposing running backs across their past six games while also allowing the highest EPA per rush to rank last in run defense DVOA during the stretch. Plus, Charbonnet is still looking for his first touchdown of the season after scoring 12 times across 16 games last year.

Blake Corum has enjoyed the Rams’ three-game winning streak. He’s seen a spike in carries and has struck for a touchdown in each of those outings. Corum does the bulk of his damage in the second half, providing relief for RB1 Kyren Williams, with four of his five total TDs this season coming in the closing 30 minutes. His lone first-half strike was a 15-yard touchdown reception in the upset loss to Arizona in Week 6.

This touchdown prop is in play up to 50%. The Cowboys have surrendered the fourth-highest catch rate to opposing tight ends, and Kittle has been a force this season with a high-end 12.7 yards per reception, 8.5 aDOT and five touchdowns. He's also garnered 30% of the red-zone targets for the 49ers, including at least one red-zone look in seven of eight games.

The Bengals running back hasn’t scored since Week 1 and had a receiving TD called back in Week 9’s win over Atlanta. Cincinnati’s passing attack has been so effective, Brown isn’t getting many red zone reps. But the Steelers pose a tough test on defense and the Bengals will have to grind out gains inside the 20-yard line. Brown is a great buy low option in the touchdown markets, with his pricing trimmed significantly. Forecast still give him around a 50% shot of finally finding paydirt on SNF.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 47.3% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a staggering 58.4 per game on average).