Kansas City @ Baltimore props

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 65.0% of their opportunities: the greatest clip on the slate this week. The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) this year. Isiah Pacheco's 45.4% Route Participation Rate this year shows a significant progression in his passing attack workload over last year's 19.3% figure.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. In this game, Justice Hill is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.3 targets. Justice Hill's 8.7% Target% this year conveys a substantial growth in his passing game volume over last year's 3.1% figure. The Chiefs pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (89%) vs. RBs this year (89.0%). When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Kansas City's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

The Ravens are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script. The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL. While Mark Andrews has accounted for 22.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Baltimore's passing attack in this week's game at 16.0%.

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 65.0% of their opportunities: the greatest clip on the slate this week. The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) this year. With a fantastic 6.3 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce places among the best TE receiving threats in the NFL.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 133.4 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. With an impressive 91.5% Route% (89th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers ranks as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in the league. In this week's contest, Zay Flowers is projected by the projections to slot into the 85th percentile among wideouts with 6.7 targets. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year. With a stellar 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers ranks as one of the leading WRs in the game in the league.

This year, the strong Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed a measly 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 133.4 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. Gus Edwards's 26.0% Route% this season shows an impressive boost in his passing attack usage over last season's 9.6% figure. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year. Gus Edwards rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, hauling in an impressive 92.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 76th percentile. The Chiefs pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (89%) vs. RBs this year (89.0%).