Baltimore @ Houston props

A throwing game script is indicated by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to pass on 64.3% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Dalton Schultz to total 6.7 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the model to call only 63.5 total plays in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week. The Texans offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board. Joe Mixon's 73.0% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a substantial drop-off in his receiving skills over last season's 83.5% mark. The Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.1%) to running backs this year (78.1%). When it comes to safeties getting after the quarterback, Baltimore's safety corps has been excellent this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Derrick Henry's 93.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a noteable improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 90.7% figure.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. In this game, Mark Andrews is anticipated by the predictive model to land in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.5 targets. Mark Andrews's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 74.4% to 86.2%.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Zay Flowers to garner 7.8 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers. Zay Flowers's 59.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 52.2. With an excellent 4.7 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands as one of the best WRs in the game in the NFL.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to pass on 64.3% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year. In this week's game, Nico Collins is predicted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile among wide receivers with 10.9 targets.