Best NFL Picks Today

When these teams met in the Super Bowl, the total closed at 45.5 and easily went Under in Seattle’s 29-13 win, but the score doesn't tell the full story. The Patriots actually averaged more yards per play, but their offense was derailed by a disastrous line performance that saw Drake Maye sacked six times and limited New England to one red-zone trip. Expect a different Patriots offense after major upgrades at receiver and adjustments to better protect Maye, who played through a shoulder injury in the Super Bowl. Seattle is also capable of carrying the scoring after averaging 31.7 points at home last season.

Los Angeles is 8-11 SU across the last 19 head-to-heads vs San Francisco, with only four wins by four or more points. This will be the healthiest version of the 49ers we've seen in a while and they arrive in Melbourne six days before kickoff, giving them nearly a full week to adjust to the 17-hour time difference. The Rams, meanwhile, won’t arrive until one day before the game following a 15-hour flight, which is a questionable approach to a regular-season rivalry matchup. Give me the points!

Chicago has high hopes in 2026, especially after coming an OT defeat away from playing the conference championship. This is Year 2 under head coach Ben Johnson, and Williams is an MVP sleeper if he can take the Chicago Bears to the next level. The Carolina Panthers backed into the postseason last year, with five losses in their final eight games, and I’m a little surprised this spread is short of a field goal, considering Carolina went 2-5 against playoff teams.

Lamar Jackson faces a blast from AFC North past when he and the Ravens take on the Colts and DC Lou Anarumo in Week 1. During his tenue with Cincinnati, Anarumo couldn’t slow down Jackson consistently and the Ravens QB chewed up his blitz-heavy schemes. Jackson recorded several multi-TD passing games versus those Bengals teams and constantly ranks out among the best QBs vs. blitz in the NFL. New Baltimore OC Declan Doyle got to work against two blitz-centric foes in joint practices this summer – Washington and Minnesota – ironing out the wrinkles against similar pressure before this Week 1 outing. I like Lamar to make Indy pay with two or more passing TDs.

Consistency has been scarce in Duval County, but the 2026 season sees the Jaguars with their most steady foundation in years. Head coach Liam Coen enters Year 2 with his offense intact and the Jacksonville defense builds on a Top 10 stop unit last season. The same can’t be said for Cleveland. The Browns have a new coaching staff, a mess at QB and a massive gap in the defense after trading away Myles Garrett. They’re not going to figure it all out by Week 1 and face a tough team on the road and likely some nasty Florida heat and humidity in their first full-speed game.

The Lions have led the NFL in home scoring in back-to-back seasons and are coming off a year in which they averaged 32.5 points per game in Detroit. While they should be able to do a lot of the heavy lifting to push this game Over 48.5, don't sleep on the Saints offense who made some major upgrades this offseason. Kellen Moore has been the arcitect of some great offenses on his way to becoming head coach of New Orleans. Expect his strengths to be on full display with a talented group of playmakers at his disposal.

The Texans were active in the offseason, bolstering their dog poo O-line and adding a steady rushing threat in David Montgomery. QB C.J. Stroud got the vote of confidence at QB (for at least one more year) and should improve given the better talent around him. For Buffalo, Josh Allen gets a true No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore, who could show out in his Buffalo debut, as his career numbers spike when he plays indoors (I’ll be sniffing around his Week 1 props as well).

The Packers are in survival mode for the first month, missing DE Micah Parsons and now likely playing without RB Josh Jacobs for the immediate future. Green Bay’s run game is really lacking punch, making this offense one-dimensional versus the blitz-heavy attack of the Vikings. Minnesota’s offense gets a shot in the arm with Kyler Murray at QB, who has plenty of experience playing against Jonathan Gannon’s schemes in practice. Gannon was Murray’s head coach in Arizona for three years and is the new DC in Green Bay. Murray’s accuracy and elite receiving corps can slice and dice a passive Packers defense missing pass pressure. 

New Giants coach John Harbaugh blasted his team’s pass protection after QB1 Jaxson Dart was sent to the medical tent in the team’s exhibition opener (Dart was cleared of any injury). He’ll need to tighten the bolts before facing Dallas on SNF in Week 1. The Cowboys ranked tops in pressure on passers last season, leading to the No. 1 hurry rate and the second most QB hits (also allowed third most rushing yards to QBs). As a dangerous dual-threat, Dart will see his number called plenty of times in this revamped Ravens-inspired offense and will pick up bonus rushing yards as he scrambles away from pressure. 

Distractions in sports tend to be overrated, but the Kansas City Chiefs have A LOT going on headed into the new season. It's fair to question what version of Patrick Mahomes we'll get in Week 1 after tearing his ACL and LCL late last season. The fact that he's coming of a bad season (by his standards) and will be playing one of the league's top defenses adds to those concerns. Denver is coming off a season where they went 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Expect them to be ready to compete and keep this game within the number against a Chiefs team that could need time to find its footing.