Best NFL Picks Today

Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren scored in the Colts’ first two games of the season and has a solid shot at finding the end zone in Hotspur Stadium on Sunday. Warren will be a popular passing target for Jones, given Washington’s aggressive pass rush. The Commanders are dialing up the blitz at the fourth highest rate, leaving tight ends plenty of room to operate underneath the coverage for quick releases. Washington has allowed the seventh most yards to TEs but more notably, has given up five touchdowns to the position in only three games. Adding to those issues is an illness to SS Nick Cross, who didn’t make the trip to London. Warren has caught all three balls thrown his way inside the red zone, two of which ended in six points. Touchdown projections for Warren sit between 32% and 50%, with most models at 40%+.

I have this at 3.08x, with Michael Wilson's TD at a fair price of 2.7x after a 17-target Week 3. His target share has been on the rise, from 19% in Week 1 to 27% in Week 2 and then 34% last week. He is getting fed, and that volume comes in a game against a New York defense that is still thin in the secondary and ranks near the bottom of the league in EPA/dropback. It's tough to find a WR1 at longer than 2.8x, especially one in a game where Arizona can score and might be able to win the time-of-possession battle against a Giants offense that is likely being run by Jameis Winston. It's a play on the price and volume.

Cook already has two touchdowns this season, and the volume suggests there are plenty more to come. He's left some meat on the bone with Josh Allen vulturing a few scoring opportunities, but the workload remains extremely encouraging. Against the Patriots, Cook should see similar volume inside the 20, and that’s all I need to back him heading into Week 4. Averaging just around 20 totes per game against a defense allowing teams to score at a 62% clip in the red zone, Cook is as safe a bet as you're going to get in this game.

I liked Braelon Allen with Breece Hall in the lineup. Now that Hall is out, Allen will have next to zero competition for work and should have all the red-zone opportunities. Allen already had six of the Jets' 14 running back red-zone opportunities this year, while Isaiah Davis has played zero offensive snaps this season and 56 on special teams. Even last year, the backup had just 43 carries in 16 games. I'm not sold on this Chicago defense that has allowed just 16 points over the last two weeks after allowing 37 to Carolina in the opener. If he is an 80/20 back, this TD price should be closer to 50/50.

Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson has seen his involvement in the Cowboys’ passing attack tick up the past two games, drawing a total of nine passes for seven receptions and a collective 66 yards. He’s run 82 routes on 128 total snaps, garnering a 10.9% target rate through three games, which is pretty good when you consider CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are on the field. Ferguson faces a Houston defense getting bullied by tight ends this season. The Texans have watched rival TEs catch 18 of 21 pass attempts for 213 yards – fourth most in the NFL. Houston’s linebacking corps is thin and its top coverage LBs are either injured or out in Week 4. Ferguson’s projections are very positive for Sunday, ranging from 25 yards to a ceiling of 38 yards. My number shakes out to 31+ receiving yards from the Dallas TE.

I got this at 4.3x, and if both Terrance Ferguson and Colby Parkinson sit, this should have a fair price of 3.5x. The Rams use heavy tight-end sets at one of the highest rates in football, and even if Puka Nacua suits up, Tyler Higbee will have a ton of snaps. He took advantage of those snaps last week, seeing nine targets and leading the team with eight receptions and a score. He also has the same number of red-zone targets as Davante Adams. The Rams' PROE is climbing after a run-heavy game in Australia, and a negative game script could have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball 40-plus times again this week. I'm getting on this early, as Ferguson is likely out and Parkinson isn't practicing early in the week. Davis Allen to score at 9x is also worth a sniff.

This is the longest Lamar Jackson has been for a TD since Week 1. He was 2.9x last week and 2.85x in Week 2, and I think anything at 3x or better is a buy this week vs. the Titans. The Baltimore team total sits at 27.5, and this might seem like a spot where Derrick Henry gets all the goal-line work, but the Ravens could be down to their No. 4 option at center, which is first-round guard Olaivavega Ioane. Tackle Ronnie Stanley and starting guard John Simpson also opened their practice windows in limited fashion. There could be some issues for a team that is running the ball 33% in the red zone. The Titans actually rank 11th in red-zone defense, and there could be a few more scrambles or designed runs inside the 20 on Sunday than expected.

I got this at 3.66x and would play to 3.4x. The Bengals are a tight-end funnel. No team gives up more yards to opposing tight ends than Cincinnati at 92 yards per game, which is a full 10-plus yards more than the next team. Having both starting safeties limited to start the week only makes this spot for Brenton Strange even better. The No. 1 tight end had five targets last week, is playing 75% of the snaps (second among pass catchers), and is running 74% of the routes. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Jacksonville offense, but Strange has a red-zone role, and the price makes him my favorite TD pick in this game, which could see both sides score 25-plus points.

Play up to 60%. Malik Washington leads Miami with 12 receptions and is averaging 7.66 targets per game through three weeks. He has cleared this number in back-to-back contests, and Minnesota’s biggest defensive weakness has come against the pass. With consistent volume, four catches is a very manageable threshold.

I got this at 2.95x, and Brock Bowers should be in that 2.6x range in a tough matchup. It's an indoor home game, which helps, but Bowers also saw 13 targets last week (43% target share) and had double-digit receptions and a score. He has a 92% route share on the season, and his monstrous 43.3% target share leads all of football. I don't care who the home matchup is against. If I'm getting 2.7x or better with this target share, I'm saying yes every week. Kansas City has been an average defense against the position this year.

AJ Barner has four TDs over his last 10 games and was as short as 3.1x in the playoffs last year. Now that the Seahawks can't run the ball, Barner's scoring role is better than it was in the postseason. He leads all Seahawks with an 85% snap share on the season, runs the second-most routes (71%), and has a tush-push role on the goal line and in short yardage, which might be needed this week after the running backs gained one yard on three RZ carries last week. The injuries to Jadarian Price (LP) and George Holani (LP) only help.

The Niners have fattened up on cupcake opponents the past two weeks, facing Arizona and Miami, and honestly have been doing so since their winning streak to end 2025. The Broncos are a step up in competition, especially if the offensive progress made in the second half of Week 3 sticks. Denver was stuck in mud for its first 150 minutes of football but broke out for 30 points in the final two frames in the comeback win over the Rams Sunday. The vile electrical substation had a huge Week 3, claiming the souls of some of San Francisco’s top talents on both sides of the ball. Denver wins the battle in the trenches in Week 4.

Detroit games have had an averaged combined score of 62.6 points so far this season. Carolina has put up 37 and 34 in two of its three games, but got obliterated for 59 by Chicago the lone time they faced a respectable offense. Both secondaries are severly beat up, with Carolina’s Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson now on injured reserve. The Lions can go shot for shot with anyone, while their defense has been awful on third down and in the red zone. 

I’m buying Atlanta’s breakout in Week 3 where they dropped 35 points and nearly 500 yards, with Bijan Robinson and Drake London doing the heavy lifting as Michael Penix Jr. settled in. The Saints allow 27.7 points per game and struggle against the run and on third down. New Orleans has topped 30 points twice, with both of those games clearing 60 combined points. With Atlanta no longer completely incompetent at QB, 47.5 is too low.