Chicago @ Detroit props

The Bears are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to pass on 63.3% of their downs: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 61.3 per game on average). The Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year. With a fantastic 2.8 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift rates as one of the top pass-game running backs in the NFL.

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 9.5 points. The projections expect the Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.6 per game) this year. Sam LaPorta's 29.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 45.9.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are forecasted by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week. Cole Kmet's 14.9% Target% this season indicates a remarkable decline in his passing offense volume over last season's 20.4% rate. Cole Kmet's 3.9 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a significant decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 4.9 mark. The Lions pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.3%) versus TEs this year (63.3%). The Lions safeties rank as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Bears are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to pass on 63.3% of their downs: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The predictive model expects Jahmyr Gibbs to total 3.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs. Jahmyr Gibbs's 82.6% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a remarkable improvement in his receiving prowess over last season's 73.7% figure. The Chicago Bears pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (87.5%) to RBs this year (87.5%).

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 9.5 points. The projections expect the Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.6 per game) this year. Amon-Ra St. Brown's pass-catching performance declined this year, averaging a mere 6.4 adjusted catches vs 7.4 last year.