Best NFL Picks Today

The line moving from +3.5 to +5.5 is just too much for me, so I'll bite on Detroit in what should be a shootout on Thursday Night Football. Dan Campbell knows how to get his guys ready for primetime, too - he's 13-3 SU and 3-0 on TNF in his career. If the Houston Texans can drop 31 points on this Bills defense, what will the Lions do? Let's bank on this high-octane offense to keep it close.

Eagles OC Sean Mannion was asked if we’re going to get more runs from Hurts after only 7 carries in Week 1. He told the media we would, stating, “It’s certainly something that really unlocks things for us.” Given that the Week 2 defense is Tennessee, I expect Hurts to have a big day on the ground and find the end zone, especially with the “Tush Push” at play. 

With the Steelers sending out a capable, experienced and versatile defense, I’m happy to take the points in what I forecast to be a low-scoring game. Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers finished with the seventh-highest PFF offense grade among quarterbacks and didn’t have a single turnover worthy play in Week 1, and the Steelers also finished the week ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA while allowing the second-lowest EPA per play.

After running 10 times for 65 yards and two scores last week, Caleb Williams' TD price hasn't seen a big correction after closing at 20% in Week 1. Williams should not be this long for a TD after a 59-point game and as the seventh-most probable Bear to score. Even in the two meetings last season against the Vikings, the Chicago quarterback ran 10 times for 84 yards and a score. The Vikings' all-out blitz defense only helps create big-gain rushing opportunities for opposing QBs, while the Packers also put up 419 yards of offense against Minnesota, which was a bottom-five mark last week. Williams likely won't take off 10 times again, but if this offense stays aggressive, his TD price could drop. That's a price I'm willing to pay this week at 25% or better.

The Falcons are a no-go with their QB play, and Chuba Hubbard is the man in this Carolina offense, which won't go up and down the field like they did against Chicago every week. Hubbard is a great play here at 55.6% or lower, or 1.8x. The RB1 took almost 80% of the RB snaps before the final drive, and Jonathan Brooks, coming back from multiple lengthy injuries, received just 12 offensive snaps. It was also Hubbard who got all four of the RB red-zone opportunities, which he turned into two scores at 2.2x. I thought about chasing the Jalen Coker TD, but Hubbard is a needed safe floor when you have a lengthy TD card. Carolina is going to dominate the TOP and run the ball all day.

This is still a +EV TD with a fair price of 3.5x (28.6%), and it's easy to see why. Braelon Allen saw double-digit carries last week against the Titans and played the majority of the snaps on third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go. It was Breece Hall getting the red-zone carries, but there weren't any short TD opportunities, and Allen handled the majority of the third-down work. The Packers gave up TDs to both Minnesota backs last week and were one of the worst teams in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on all four Minnesota opportunities inside the 20. Their turnovers and penalties can only help New York keep a neutral game script.

Tyler Shough ran four times for only eight yards in a thrilling loss to the Lions in Week 1. The Saints QB faces a Ravens defense that blitzed the snot out of Colts QB Daniel Jones in Week 1. He’ll be forced to out of pocket and put on the run. As a rookie, Shough amassed 10 rushing yards or more in six of his 10 starts with some big gains, like 55 yards versus the blitz-happy Bucs. Projections all sit well above this lower total, ranging from 15 to 21+ rushing yards. His Week 1 total was 18.5 yards O/U and his last five rushing yard total in 2025 were between 16.5 and 20.5 O/U. This 11.5 O/U total seems like an overcorrection to that low Week 1 outing.

This might be the best price we get for Chase Brown all season. He should not be 50% or lower in any game, and this price is giving the Texans too much credit after a similar top-tier offense just put up 36 points and 409 total yards in Houston last week. Chase Brown got six of the seven running back red-zone opportunities last week, including all three carries inside the five, where he cashed a -125 touchdown. He's scored seven TDs over his last four games dating back to last season, and I have him at a base probability of 55.6% against an average defense.

Sometimes people in the dumps need some support, and that's where I am with Deshaun Watson this week at a 7x TD price that should not be more than 5x. He had a very difficult Week 1 matchup against that Jaguars defense. Things should be a little easier against the Buccaneers, who allowed 5.6 yards per play and five red-zone opportunities to the Bengals. Watson ran six times last week for 38 yards, including twice in the red zone, and was one of only eight QBs who had multiple RZ rushes in Week 1. He's locked into the No. 1 role and will want to silence the Cleveland fans in Week 3 in the home opener with at least something positive this week. Just think of the bragging rights you'll get if you cash a 7x Watson TD when the world is rooting against him.

It seems every offensive position for the Broncos is a crowded mess, and that Week 1 prime-time performance left a sour taste in my mouth. The Jaguars, however, looked as good as the Bills and Ravens. The Denver run defense knew Kenneth Walker was coming with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes and still got run over. That's where the 3.2x comes in for Bhayshul Tuten, and it's a price I'd take to 2.5x. The Jacksonville backfield was pretty split, and Tuten didn't play a huge amount at 48% of the snaps, but when he was on the field, he got the ball. He had 16 opportunities on 27 snaps, and the blowout might have muddied the actual rotation. Chris Rodriguez could poach some goal-line work, and his 4.1x price is also something to consider. I just think the Jacksonville running game and offense aren't getting enough credit against a Denver defense that did nothing and is on a short week.

I got this at 3.7x and would play to 3.2x. The Raiders should be playing in a negative game script on Sunday, and Michael Mayer could be the most-targeted Raider in an indoor game against a Chargers team that is in a must-win spot in Week 2. Last week as the TE1, Mayer led the Silver and Black in target share at 24% and targets per route run at 30%. He had seven targets and caught six balls, with the Raiders playing with the lead from start to finish. He was also one of three pass-catchers to see a target in the red zone. He isn't running deep routes, but that's a good thing when his QB is Kirk Cousins. He could have a big-volume game if Las Vegas is forced to pass more than its 46% rate in Week 1.

Let's not get carried away with Arizona's Week 1 win, and getting an RB1 against this team at 2.4x is a steal. Jadarian Price got his feet wet in the opener and was the preferred back on first and second down, with George Holani getting 92% of the third-down work. He'll have another week to plan with new QB Drew Lock, which could make this team more run-heavy than it was with Sam Darnold. The Seahawks only ran 48 plays last Wednesday, so Price's 10-carry, 52-yard game should have more volume in Week 2. The Seahawks had zero carries inside the 10-yard line, but George Holani took the only two red-zone carries. Here's hoping Mike Macdonald and Brian Fleury let Price eat a little more in the Price vs. Jeremiyah Love game.

Christian McCaffrey can gash this Dolphins defense for big gains on the ground in Week 2. Miami was 24th in Run Defense DVOA in Week 1 and allowed 100+ yards to Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty. The Fins could be missing two starters on the defensive line and Run CMC has fresh legs with an extended break after thumping the Rams in Australia. He had only 10 carries in that one-side win due to cramping – giving way to rookie RB Kaelon Black - and even with game script calling for another 49ers blowout, projections sit north of 60+ yards with a ceiling of 68. My number comes out to 63 yards from McCaffrey on Sunday.

This TD is popping on the projections at its 3.65x price, with a fair price of 3.2x. It's also the No. 5 TD on the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index (68). The Commanders just gave up a monster line to another TE last week in Dallas Goedert, who went for 4-77-2. His TD was the highest-value play on the TD Value Index last week. Ferguson saw just two targets on SNF but still played 75% of the snaps, which ranked behind only CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. If Ferguson finds paydirt in Week 2, the Commanders are officially TE funnels.

Remember when we got Kenneth Walker at close to even money? Not anymore. The Chiefs players are hard to back at their current prices. However, the market is low on the Colts, who are giant dogs in this game despite the Chiefs playing on a short week. This Alec Pierce price is also well off fair, from 4.5x to a fair of 3.4x. Pierce exited early in Week 1 but came back and played close to 90% of the snaps in the second half. This is still a KC secondary that had plenty of turnover from the previous year, and although Bo Nix and the Broncos couldn't figure it out, there should be plenty of negative game script for Daniel Jones to keep chucking the ball. If Pierce plays average in this game, this price will never appear again.

Isaiah Likely was the cash converter last week and was a huge part of the Giants' offense, keeping pace with Malik Nabers in terms of usage and volume. Despite that, his TD price has not moved, which I don't mind at all. I understand it's the Rams, but they are just getting back from Australia and looked awful defending the pass in Week 1. Likely had four targets in the red zone and finished with two TDs. No other TE or WR had more than three RZ catches in Week 1. Likely is the No. 2 in this passing game and is a green light for a TD buy at 3x or better right now.