New Orleans @ New York props

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Giants to pass on 54.2% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the New York Giants profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Giants to pass on 54.2% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the New York Giants profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year.

The New York Giants will be forced to start backup quarterback Drew Lock in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 133.8 total plays run: the 3rd-most among all games this week. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-most in football. With a stellar 90.4% Adjusted Catch% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Daniel Bellinger places as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.

The model projects the Saints to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Juwan Johnson is projected by the predictive model to land in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets. While Juwan Johnson has been responsible for 10.8% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New Orleans's passing offense in this contest at 17.5%. Juwan Johnson's 80.5% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a material growth in his receiving prowess over last season's 64.1% figure. The Giants pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (93.4%) to tight ends this year (93.4%).

The model projects the Saints to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack in this week's game (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.6% in games he has played). The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.5%) vs. wideouts this year (68.5%). As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New York's safety corps has been very bad this year, ranking as the 9th-worst in the league.

The model projects the Saints to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Alvin Kamara to notch 7.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs. Alvin Kamara's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 28.9. Alvin Kamara is positioned as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 4.8 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 100th percentile. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New York's safety corps has been very bad this year, ranking as the 9th-worst in the league.