Best NFL Picks Today

Bijan Robinson IS the Atlanta offense, and with Michael Penix being thrown into the fire at Lambeau Field, expect him to rely on his safety blanket heavily. Last year, Bijan accounted for 92% of the target share in the red zone and will again be leaned on to make plays for a struggling unit that has scored just 16 points through two weeks. 

The Dolphins have had issues covering tight ends this year with George Kittle securing a touchdown and 80 yards last week, and the combo of Michael Mayer/Jack Bech hauling in nine catches for 55 yards and a score in the season opener. With the Chiefs scheming Kelce open so far this year, expect him to fly past this number, he's done so twice already.

I really wanted Quinshon Judkins at 2.25x against the Panthers, who are getting gashed on the ground. However, getting Denzel Boston at this price after two weeks of cashing still feels long, with a fair price around 3.2x. Judkins has not found any room to run through two games, but Boston already has a 21% target share and a whopping 52% of the air-yard share. The only wide receivers with a bigger AYS are Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, and Chris Olave — some big hitters. Boston can run the deep route for a score like he did in Week 1 or catch and run for yards like last week. He's beaten the Jaguars and Bucs. Surely, he can beat the Panthers, who gave up 59 points in Week 1 before having to play the worst QB tandem in the history of the sport in Week 2.

Elic Ayomanor might be WR2 facing a Giants defense that is on a short week and dealing with cluster injuries at corner. Davante Adams did whatever he wanted on MNF because of the lack of NFL talent at corner. Ayomanor should not be longer than 5.5x. He's playing better than Calvin Ridley and is getting targeted on 20% of his routes while sitting second on the team in air-yard share at 30%. He also has all of the WR red-zone targets at three through two games, with a TD. It's a longer shot here, but certainly +EV. The only thing knocking it is a bad pass offense, but the Eagles and Jets are a lot different than the Giants, who have allowed a red-zone touchdown on all six of their opponents' trips inside the 20.

This is one of the higher +EV TD plays, per THE BLITZ projections, which have Hunter Henry at a fair price of 3.05x vs. this 3.5x bargain. I'm not going to try to figure out a muddied New England backfield, but Henry is playing 92% of the snaps, and the injury to rookie Eli Raridon could help open up some more targets. The New England wide receivers are tough to trust, with five of them splitting just 12 targets last week. Henry led the team in routes and targets last week and might be the No. 1 option in the passing game right now. TEs with this kind of route and target volume should be around 3x to score.

Depending on how you look at the Chargers’ chances in Orchard Park, you may or may not be onboard with Omarion Hampton getting Over his rushing total. The big spread says the Bolts are playing from behind and passing, but L.A.’s best plan of attack is to run early and often and control the football – not allowing Josh Allen & Co. on the field. Hampton had a nice day in the loss to Vegas, rushing 23 times for 94 yards, and his involvement is the key to Mike MacDaniel’s misdirection-heavy schemes. Buffalo’s run defense continues to be a work in progress (28th in EPA allowed per handoff) and models are positive for Hampton, sitting north of 60 yards with a ceiling of 72. My number is at 67 yards on Sunday.

Even the Jets should find points against a Detroit defense that’s surrendered 71 through two games. The Lions can handle the heavy lifting though. They’ve led the league in home scoring in two straight seasons, have extra rest, and pose a far tougher challenge than anything the Jets have faced so far this season. Including the playoffs, eight of Detroit’s last 10 home games cleared 47.5, averaging 58.1 combined points.

Houston’s defensive numbers don’t look great out of the gate, allowing the fourth most points per play through two games. Granted, those games came against Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. The Texans get a major step down in QB competition in Week 3, facing Daniel Jones and the Colts. Jones doesn’t pose the big play threat, ranked third lowest in intended air yards. The Colts are picking up only 5.0 yards per play on offense and running one of the more methodical paces, eating the fifth most seconds per play clock. I see a return to greatness for the Texans offense, leaving Indy short of 21 points in Week 3.  

Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces a banged-up Commanders secondary running one the highest rates of zone coverage through two weeks. Washington is still trying to find its way in the new schemes of DC Daronta Jones, rating near the bottom of the league in many advanced pass defense measurements. That includes rating 30th in DVOA vs. WR1. Smith-Njigba is the top WR vs. zone coverage and projections are positive in DC, with most models coming in above 90 yards – ceiling of 115 – and my number coming out to 95+ receiving yards. 

Burrow has thrown for two or more touchdowns in six of his past eight games for 18 total dating back to 2025, and the Steelers have backfield question marks. Pittsburgh cornerback Jamel Dean practiced Thursday after missing Wednesday’s session with an ankle injury, safety DeShon Elliott is on injured reserve, and Joey Porter Jr.'s status continues to be clouded by contract disputes after missing the first two weeks of the season.

I got this at 3x and think the fair price should be around 2.65x. Deebo Samuel led the team in route share in a similar spot last week as a huge favorite. The 49ers still had a 4.4% PROE (eighth best) despite the positive game script, which keeps me hopeful that Brock Purdy will keep slinging it. The overall play volume wasn't huge, but Samuel tied for the team lead in targets and had a rush, which was his second in two weeks. Samuel could have a path to more targets in Week 3 with Demarcus Robinson out and Mike Evans becoming more questionable after being a DNP at practice Wednesday. Purdy is playing at an MVP level, and Samuel has a role around the goal line, as he is tied for the team lead in RZ targets with three and has one score. If Evans sits, this could close as short as 2.4x or 2.5x.

Defensive masterminds Todd Bowles and Brian Flores send extra pass rushers more than most, which has me measuring just how the respective QBs will handle the heat. Baker Mayfield has been solid versus the blitz during this time in Tampa, with an uncanny ability to sneak away from pressure and either make a play with his legs or squeeze in a release pass. Kyler Murray is expected to be under center after having his Vikings debut cut short due to a concussion in Week 1. Murray hasn’t been great against blitzes during this career and had only 11 full-speed snaps (five dropbacks) in Kevin O’Connell’s offense before getting hurt. We’re getting Tampa Bay at a discount. It was originally a 1.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead market and sat at that same spread before the results of Week 2.

Baltimore should come out swinging after scoring just 17 against New Orleans. Dallas ranks 28th in yards allowed per rush attempt and has surrendered a league-worst 68% third-down conversion rate against the Giants and a Commanders team that lost Jayden Daniels. That’s a juicy setup for Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still rank second in yards per play, and this matchup gives them every chance to look more like the team that hung 41 on Indianapolis in Week 1.

I have to back the arm of Tyler Shough and his league-leading passing yards, but it's not Chris Olave I want — it's Devaughn Vele and his 95% snap share and 90% route share in an indoor game. Vele is a clear No. 2 in this offense and is working with a 20% target share from a quarterback who has thrown for 250+ yards in back-to-back games despite slow first halves. The wide receiver has 16 targets over two games, turning them into 12 catches for 133 yards and a TD. He's also received at least one RZ target in both games. It's another indoor game that projects to be faster and more pass-efficient, and I'm not sure this Las Vegas offense is as strong as its numbers suggest. I got this at 3.95x and would play to 3.5x.

This might seem short, but I have this fair price much closer to even money. Matthew Stafford had no interest in passing to anyone but Davante Adams last Monday, even with the injuries to Puka Nacua and Jordan Whittington, who have been DNPs early this week. Adding to the pass-catcher injuries, Colby Parkinson is dealing with a knee injury. Parkinson played 70% of the snaps in Week 2 and was used more as a blocker, which could be a downgrade for the run game. Stafford was also happy to keep passing in the second half in a game that was already over when Jaxson Dart left. Adams was a beast against a bad secondary, putting up 195 yards and two TDs on 10 targets. He has a 28% target share heading into the Sunday nighter. Adams is also arguably the best red-zone pass-catching wide receiver in football. He tied for the league lead in RZ targets last year with 32 despite playing in only 14 games. He should be even money here, and even Patrick Surtain doesn't scare me.

I'll be backing the Philadelphia Eagles at -4.5 in this one, as I price them closer to a 6-point favorite against the Chicago Bears. I'm not going to lie, the side I choose always comes down to the numbers, but as a football fan, I'm thrilled that my edge in the projections is with the Eagles instead of Tyson Bagent/Case Keenum and the Bears. The line has moved six points from Bears -1.5 to Eagles -4.5 following Caleb Williams' injury and the downgrade to Bagent/Keenum. But I don't think the market has adjusted enough for this specific matchup against an Eagles defense coached by Vic Fangio and loaded with playmakers. This isn't a Williams-to-Bagent/Keenum downgrade against the Tennessee Titans.