New York @ Miami props

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are favored by 6.5 points. With a 57.9% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL has been the Miami Dolphins. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see only 127.7 total plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.1 per game) this year. The New York Jets linebackers project as the 10th-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 7th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the New York Jets this year (only 55.7 per game on average).

The Miami Dolphins have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.1 plays per game. In this game, Jonnu Smith is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.2 targets. Jonnu Smith's 39.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 28.8. Jonnu Smith's receiving talent has gotten a boost this year, notching 4.8 adjusted receptions vs just 3.3 last year. Jonnu Smith's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 71.6% to 80.6%.

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New York Jets to pass on 63.7% of their downs: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week. Tyler Conklin's 82.3% Route Participation Rate this season marks a noteable gain in his pass game utilization over last season's 67.7% mark. In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year. The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 8th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New York Jets to pass on 63.7% of their downs: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week. In this week's contest, Davante Adams is expected by the predictive model to land in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.9 targets. Davante Adams is positioned as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a remarkable 5.4 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 89th percentile. This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.1 plays per game. This week, Tyreek Hill is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 78th percentile among WRs with 7.2 targets.