Buffalo @ Los Angeles props

This game's line implies a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 3.5 points. Our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 6th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Puka Nacua grades out as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 5.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 95th percentile. The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71%) vs. wideouts this year (71.0%).

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume. The predictive model expects Khalil Shakir to notch 8.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among wideouts. Khalil Shakir's 23.5% Target% this year indicates a meaningful growth in his passing game usage over last year's 7.8% figure. As it relates to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year. Khalil Shakir's 5.5 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 2.4 figure.

This game's line implies a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 3.5 points. Our trusted projections expect the Bills to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year.

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 6th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Kyren Williams's 87.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a material boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 68.1% figure. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Buffalo's collection of LBs has been awful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.