Dallas @ San Francisco props

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. The model projects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Cowboys are forecasted by the projections to run 66.3 total plays in this contest: the highest number among all teams this week. Rico Dowdle's 2.6 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a remarkable growth in his receiving ability over last season's 1.1 mark. This year, the porous San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered a staggering 87.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 9th-largest rate in the league.

The 49ers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Cowboys, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.8 per game) this year. Deebo Samuel's 60.6% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a meaningful regression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 69.3% figure.

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. The model projects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Cowboys are forecasted by the projections to run 66.2 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.3 plays per game. With an exceptional 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) this year, Jake Ferguson rates among the leading pass-catching TEs in the NFL.

CeeDee Lamb has been much less involved in his team's pass attack this season (23.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (30.2%). When it comes to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year. CeeDee Lamb's 5.4 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching skills over last year's 7.9 figure. CeeDee Lamb's 62.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 74.7% rate. The 49ers pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (56%) versus wide receivers this year (56.0%).

Based on the game dynamics and tendencies of each team, the model projects this game (with an average of 26.04 seconds per play) will have the 3rd-quickest tempo on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the 49ers this year (a staggering 59.0 per game on average). In this contest, George Kittle is forecasted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.6 targets. George Kittle has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 23.9% this year, which places him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends. George Kittle's 5.7 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a noteworthy progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 4.0 rate.

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. The model projects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Cowboys are forecasted by the projections to run 66.2 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.3 plays per game. This year, the porous San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered a staggering 87.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 9th-largest rate in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and tendencies of each team, the model projects this game (with an average of 26.04 seconds per play) will have the 3rd-quickest tempo on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the 49ers this year (a staggering 59.0 per game on average). Jordan Mason has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (57.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (6.5%). Jordan Mason's 1.4 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects an impressive improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 0.3 rate. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Dallas's safety corps has been lousy this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.