Cleveland @ Cincinnati props

With a 10-point advantage, the Bengals are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their normal approach. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.3 per game) this year. The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing game statistics across the board. The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60.2%) vs. WRs this year (60.2%).

The Cleveland Browns may take to the air less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns are a heavy 10-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Browns to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see 138.5 offensive plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to garner 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs. Chase Brown's 18.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 4.5.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see 138.5 offensive plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume. The projections expect Mike Gesicki to notch 4.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends. Mike Gesicki's 3.5 adjusted catches per game this year reflects an impressive gain in his pass-catching talent over last year's 2.0 mark.

The Cleveland Browns may take to the air less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns are a heavy 10-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Browns to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league. Jerry Jeudy's 5.0 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a significant boost in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 3.4 rate.

The Cleveland Browns may take to the air less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns are a heavy 10-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Browns to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league. Jerome Ford grades out as one of the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an outstanding 2.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.