Chicago @ Minnesota props

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bears are huge underdogs in this week's contest, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. The predictive model expects the Bears as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Chicago Bears have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.8 plays per game. The Vikings defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.4 per game) this year. D'Andre Swift checks in as one of the leading pass-game RBs this year, averaging a terrific 2.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to have just 125.8 total plays run: the fewest among all games this week. D.J. Moore's 59.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 76.9. D.J. Moore's 66.7% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a remarkable decrease in his receiving proficiency over last season's 73.2% mark. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Minnesota's CB corps has been excellent this year, ranking as the 9th-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Aaron Jones has run more routes this season (49.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (37.6%). The projections expect Aaron Jones to total 3.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs. With a fantastic 2.9 adjusted catches per game (90th percentile) this year, Aaron Jones rates among the best running backs in the pass game in football.

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The predictive model expects T.J. Hockenson to total 6.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs. T.J. Hockenson's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 75.2% to 82.1%.

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Justin Jefferson has run a route on 99.5% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wideouts. In this week's contest, Justin Jefferson is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 95th percentile among wideouts with 9.5 targets. With a stellar 5.7 adjusted catches per game (91st percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson has been among the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bears are huge underdogs in this week's contest, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. The predictive model expects the Bears as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Chicago Bears have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Vikings defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.4 per game) this year.