Tampa Bay @ Kansas City props

With a 8.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are heavily favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 56.9% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

This week's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are massive -8.5-point underdogs. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have 130.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week. In this week's game, Sterling Shepard is forecasted by the projection model to place in the 75th percentile among WRs with 6.5 targets. Sterling Shepard's receiving talent has gotten better this season, accumulating 2.2 adjusted catches vs just 1.0 last season.

This week's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are massive -8.5-point underdogs. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have 130.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week. In this week's contest, Cade Otton is anticipated by the projections to find himself in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs with 8.1 targets. This year, the feeble Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 80.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.

This week's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are massive -9-point underdogs. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 63.2% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have 130.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week. The Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have 130.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have 130.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football. In this game, Travis Kelce is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 8.8 targets. Travis Kelce's 57.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 50.2. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

This week's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are massive -8.5-point underdogs. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have 130.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect Rachaad White to earn 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. Rachaad White checks in as one of the leading pass-game RBs this year, averaging an outstanding 4.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.