Pittsburgh @ Baltimore props

A running game script is implied by the Ravens being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.52 seconds per play. The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. Zay Flowers's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 75.1% to 67.8%.

Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. This year, the strong Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded a puny 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 9th-smallest rate in the league. As it relates to safeties pass-rushing, Baltimore's group of safeties has been great this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

A running game script is implied by the Ravens being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.52 seconds per play. The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. Mark Andrews's 32.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 46.8.

Derrick Henry's 93.9% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his receiving ability over last year's 90.7% figure.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. At the present time, the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year. Najee Harris has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 10.1% this year, which ranks in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. At the present time, the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year. In this game, Pat Freiermuth is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 89th percentile among tight ends with 5.9 targets. Pat Freiermuth profiles as one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a remarkable 3.4 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.