Detroit @ Chicago props

The predictive model expects the Bears to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher rush volume. D.J. Moore's 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 76.9. D.J. Moore's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 73.2% to 69.0%. This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has allowed a measly 61.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

An extreme running game script is implied by the Lions being a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 53.4% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. Sam LaPorta's 34.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 45.9.

An extreme running game script is implied by the Lions being a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 53.4% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

An extreme running game script is implied by the Lions being a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 53.4% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. This year, the fierce Bears defense has allowed a feeble 63.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 10th-best rate in football.

The predictive model expects the Bears to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher rush volume. Cole Kmet has been a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this year (11.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (20.4%). Cole Kmet's 3.6 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a noteworthy regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 4.9 mark. The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.9%) vs. tight ends this year (63.9%).

The predictive model expects the Bears to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher rush volume. The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.