Tennessee @ Indianapolis props

The Tennessee Titans will be forced to use backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The Titans are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The model projects Tony Pollard to notch 3.8 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs. With a sizeable 12.7% Target Share (94th percentile) this year, Tony Pollard rates among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. Jonathan Taylor's 61.8% Route Participation% this year indicates a material progression in his passing offense volume over last year's 47.1% mark. When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (87.2%) to RBs this year (87.2%).

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. In this week's game, Josh Downs is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 78th percentile among wide receivers with 7.2 targets. Josh Downs has been much more involved in his team's passing game this year (26.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.2%). When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year. Josh Downs's 5.2 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a noteable progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 4.0 figure.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (80%) vs. TEs this year (80.0%).

The Tennessee Titans will be forced to use backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The Titans are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. In this week's contest, Chigoziem Okonkwo is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.3 targets. This year, the deficient Colts pass defense has conceded a staggering 82.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst rate in football.

The Tennessee Titans will be forced to use backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The Titans are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The predictive model expects Calvin Ridley to garner 8.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. The Colts pass defense has been gouged for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.4%) vs. WRs this year (70.4%).