Best NFL Picks Today

Look for JSN to get involved early and often at home on Wednesday. Seattle's No. 1 wideout recorded 10 or more targets nine times a season ago, and might see an even heavier workload this year. By all reports, new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury and JSN have already built a strong rapport in the offseason, which bodes well for his target share in Week 1. With rookie RB Jadarian Price making his NFL debut, expect the offense to lean on the passing attack.

Los Angeles is 8-11 SU across the last 19 head-to-heads vs San Francisco, with only four wins by four or more points. This will be the healthiest version of the 49ers we've seen in a while and they arrive in Melbourne six days before kickoff, giving them nearly a full week to adjust to the 17-hour time difference. The Rams, meanwhile, won’t arrive until one day before the game following a 15-hour flight, which is a questionable approach to a regular-season rivalry matchup. Give me the points!

Lamar Jackson faces a blast from AFC North past when he and the Ravens take on the Colts and DC Lou Anarumo in Week 1. During his tenue with Cincinnati, Anarumo couldn’t slow down Jackson consistently and the Ravens QB chewed up his blitz-heavy schemes. Jackson recorded several multi-TD passing games versus those Bengals teams and constantly ranks out among the best QBs vs. blitz in the NFL. New Baltimore OC Declan Doyle got to work against two blitz-centric foes in joint practices this summer – Washington and Minnesota – ironing out the wrinkles against similar pressure before this Week 1 outing. I like Lamar to make Indy pay with two or more passing TDs.

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Pat Freiermuth is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.5 targets.. Pat Freiermuth has received a monstrous 10.8% of his team's air yards last year: 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.. The Falcons pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the NFL.

The Cleveland Browns enter the year with massive questions on offense, with PFF rating them dead last in its offensive power rankings, though they remain solid on defense. With two solid defenses and Cleveland's atrocious offense, this promises to be one of the lowest-scoring games of Week 1. I like the Under at totals down to 38.5 points.

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to total 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Chase Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 14.5% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).. Last year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the most in football.

The Jets will be rolling out backup QB Geno Smith in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Jets, who are -3-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects Breece Hall to garner 3.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.. When it comes to air yards, Breece Hall ranks in the lofty 90th percentile among RBs last year, totaling an astounding 2.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. Breece Hall's 15.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the league: 84th percentile for RBs.

The Lions have led the NFL in home scoring in back-to-back seasons and are coming off a year in which they averaged 32.5 points per game in Detroit. While they should be able to do a lot of the heavy lifting to push this game Over 48.5, don't sleep on the Saints offense who made some major upgrades this offseason. Kellen Moore has been the arcitect of some great offenses on his way to becoming head coach of New Orleans. Expect his strengths to be on full display with a talented group of playmakers at his disposal.

The Texans were active in the offseason, bolstering their dog poo O-line and adding a steady rushing threat in David Montgomery. QB C.J. Stroud got the vote of confidence at QB (for at least one more year) and should improve given the better talent around him. For Buffalo, Josh Allen gets a true No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore, who could show out in his Buffalo debut, as his career numbers spike when he plays indoors (I’ll be sniffing around his Week 1 props as well).

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.. While Charlie Kolar has accounted for 3.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played last year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Los Angeles's passing attack in this game at 10.0%.. Last year, the poor Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed a colossal 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-most in the league.. Last year, the anemic Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 0.00 YAC.

The blitz-heavy Vikings will face a Packers offensive line with question marks beside starters Aaron Banks (knee) and Zach Bako-Bewele (knee), and Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love dipped to a pedestrian 41.6 completion percentage for 5.0 yards per target when pressured last season. Playing without key starters Micah Parsons (knee) and Josh Jacobs (Reserve-CEL) will aslo be a huge hit to the Packers. On the flip side, Minnesota quarterback Kyler Murray has a top-tier receiver corps at his disposal for the first time of his career, and his 67.1 career completion percentage and mobility will thrive in head coach Kevin O'Connell’s offense.

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins last year (a mere 51.7 per game on average).. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game results when facing more favorable weather this week.. Jalen Hurts has been among the top TD passers in football last year, averaging a remarkable 1.47 per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in football against the Commanders defense last year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).. Last year, the weak Commanders defense has allowed a whopping 1.94 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 3rd-largest rate in the league.

With the Giants in transition mode under new head coach John Harbaugh, I’m happy to take the Cowboys below the key number of 3. The Dallas offense has oodles of continuity after averaging 27.7 points per game last season, and the offseason commitment to bringing in talent on the defensive side of the ball will provide an upgrade to a stop unit that allowed the third-most yards and most points per game.  I also anticipate this game closing with Dallas as at least a -3 favorite ahead of Sunday Night Football.

Distractions in sports tend to be overrated, but the Kansas City Chiefs have A LOT going on headed into the new season. It's fair to question what version of Patrick Mahomes we'll get in Week 1 after tearing his ACL and LCL late last season. The fact that he's coming of a bad season (by his standards) and will be playing one of the league's top defenses adds to those concerns. Denver is coming off a season where they went 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Expect them to be ready to compete and keep this game within the number against a Chiefs team that could need time to find its footing.