NBA Picks

With the Milwaukee Bucks defense focused on Tyrese Haliburton, we're seeing the other guards, Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell, being able to get in the lane and generate offense at will for the Pacers. In Game 5, McConnell went Under this total with only 3 dimes, but he had 7 potential assists in only 16 minutes of playing time. Many of the potential assists that weren't converted were to three-point shooters, and with Game 6 moving back to Indiana on Thursday, we could see these potential assists convert at a higher rate because role players always shoot better at home. McConnell is projected to drop 4.5 dimes against the Bucks on Thursday.

Indiana was -5.5 on the road in Game 5. Typical adjusting for homecourt would have jumped that spread to at least -10 in Game 6, not the -8.5 it was before Damian Lillard became questionable for tonight. So if his possible return was already baked into the spread by a touch, enough of a touch that this drop to -6 is too aggressive, why not just take that? Because the last moments of desperation tonight could create a backdoor cover from the Bucks. But the Pacers have led at halftime in each of their three wins, so taking a double result on Indiana tonight provides similarly mispriced value.

Not only did Nick Nurse give Nicolas Batum more playing time in the fourth quarter, but Batum also started and played the five minutes in overtime. Batum is an unselfish player who sees the floor well and is capable of making the correct read on a play. The 76ers also have plays in their offensive sets designed for Batum to be the passer for the open shot; you saw one of them with a minute left in overtime when he found Oubre to break the tie. If you put Batum on the floor for 30+ minutes with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, who can convert his potential assists, there's no way I'm not hitting the button on a 1.5 (+180) for the Over on Batum's assists total. Batum is projected to have 1.9 assists on Thursday against the Knicks.

The projection we're using to establish an edge on this number is 26 minutes for DiVincenzo. So we have an edge on this number even if his minutes fall on the low end of what we have seen for DiVincenzo. The thing is, this is Tom Thibodeau we are talking about here. Is it out of the realm of possibility that he just randomly decides to play DiVincenzo for 35 minutes in Game 6 and maybe ride the hot hand? Not at all, he did play 37 minutes in Game 2. When you watch the film from Game 5, DiVincenzo was able to drive the ball, get in the lane, and make something happen on several occasions. DiVincenzo is projected to have 2.5 assists on Thursday against the 76ers.

Embiid clearly isn’t 100%. That’s no secret. At times, he’s dragging his body up and down the court, but Nick Nurse has been increasingly hesitant to rest Embiid given the way Philadelphia sinks without him. So I see another big workload tonight for Embiid and I expect him to make the most of the Game 5 let-off against a wounded New York Knicks team playing just a seven-man rotation. The Over on Embiid’s points + rebounds prop jumps out as good value. It’s probably a stretch to expect the Game 3 version of Embiid (50 points, 68% shooting), but I’m counting on strong showing to put consecutive 7-for-19 efforts in the rearview mirror. Free throws will be key. Embiid went 19-for-21 from the charity stripe in Game 3 but only attempted six free throws on Tuesday night.