UFC 294 Ankalaev vs Walker Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Magomed Picks Apart Wobbly Walker

Johnny Walker vs. Magomed Ankalaev is a light heavyweight showdown featured on today's UFC 294 undercard from The Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.

Ankalaev looks to turn away the reinvigorated Walker in a battle between battle-tested and hungry light heavyweights.

UFC odds have tabbed Ankalaev as a healthy favorite at -375 and Walker a +295 underdog. Here are my free picks for Walker vs. Ankalaev at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi.

Ankalaev vs Walker fight odds

Ankalaev vs Walker method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 18, 2023.

Ankalaev vs Walker picks

Fight prediction: Ankalaev

Johnny Walker’s resurrection has been a feel-good story at light heavyweight, but the book is likely about to close at the hands of the capable Magomed Ankalaev. Ankalaev has rested at or near the top of the division for the last three years, and many believe he deserved the win and light heavyweight title in his dubious draw against Jan Blachowicz at UFC 282... the only blemish on his record since 2018

He is a crisp striker who can score takedowns and has frustratingly good defense against one-note fighters like Walker. The totality of Ankalaev’s strengths are far beyond what has leveled Walker in the past, and without any glaring holes in his game, this could get ugly.

His recent run has been good enough to almost forget his miserable 1-4 stretch. While Ankalaev was reinforcing his spot as an elite light heavyweight, Walker got rag-dolled and knocked out once he started stepping up his competition. While he looks to have regained his competitive mojo again in his recent wins, this ultimately is a step too high for him. 

Prediction: Ankalaev moneyline (-375 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Over 1.5 rounds

In retrospect, Walker’s last three wins have come against opponents who could succumb to his strengths. I can't see that with Ankalaev, who is too defensively sound and has a good chin. This might be a mismatch once we get past the first round.

Walker is not a distance fighter. He’ll try and detonate Ankalaev early, fail to do so, and won’t have enough left to mount another offensive later in the fight. With Ankalaev’s patience and skills, he can pick apart whatever Walker has left and stay out of the way of any desperate haymakers. 

I expect a clinical performance from Ankalaev. This one might get stopped late or go the rounds, so I'm betting on it going Over 1.5 rounds.

Pick: Over 1.5 rounds (-166 at DraftKings)

Ankalaev vs Walker betting preview

Ankalaev returns to the octagon after a controversial draw to Blachowicz. A top-tier light heavyweight since 2020, Ankalaev aims to protect what should be his front-of-the-line pass for an overdue title fight.

The last time Ankalaev lost was in 2018, on the wrong end of a come-from-behind submission win from Paul Craig.

Walker may have fallen short of the lofty expectations many had for him but fought back from the brink. A brutal 1-4 stretch was alleviated with a three-win streak against Ion Cutelaba, Craig, and Anthony Smith. The Brazilian is a big striker — with 16 wins coming by knockout— and clocks in an average fight time of seven minutes and 17 seconds.

These two have similar striking numbers with Walker landing slightly more (3.85 to 3.55 for Ankalaev), but also absorbing slightly more (2.58 to 2.15). Walker will have a three-inch height advantage and a glaring seven-inch reach advantage. This will be Walker’s third fight this year and serves as Ankalaev’s first fight in 10 months.

Ankalaev vs Walker tale of the tape

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