UFC 294 Makhachev vs Volkanovski Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Volk Gets His Revenge

Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski will face off in a highly-anticipated rematch in the headline event for UFC 294 on Saturday. These two champs fought earlier this year, with Volkanovski moving up in weight to challenge Makhachev for the lightweight belt.

Makhachev won that fight in a thrilling back-and-forth battle, and oddsmakers expect him to retain the title again with UFC odds opening with him as a -275 favorite. Here are my best free UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 picks and predictions for October 21 from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Makhachev vs Volkanovski fight odds

Makhachev vs Volkanovski method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 21, 2023.

Makhachev vs Volkanovski picks

Fight prediction: Volkanovski

I'm not one of those who thought that Alexander Volkanovski deserved the victory in that first fight. While he was able to scramble out of trouble on the mat, he was taken down four times and Islam Makhachev more than held his own in the striking exchanges through the first four rounds.

That said, Volk seemed to gain more confidence as the fight went on and by the final round, he clearly had the upper hand. Despite not getting his hand raised, Volkanovski proved to be on the same level as Makhachev and that his closing money line price of +300 was disrespectful. 

If Volk was coming into this fight at 100% health with the benefit of a full camp, he'd likely be a short dog in the neighborhood of +120 for an implied probability of 45.5%. So the big question is whether the short notice in this matchup justifies a price of +200 for an implied probability of 33.3%.

I think that's too much of an adjustment for a supremely conditioned fighter who is as active as Volkanovski has been. Although he underwent surgery in July, it was a fairly routine procedure for an MMA fighter and he immediately vowed to be "ready to fight in Abu Dhabi to fight Islam or Charles Oliveira."

That's a pretty good indication he already thought this event was a strong possibility and was mentally and physically prepared for it. It's obviously tough to train for a title fight on just 11 days of notice, but Volk has elite fight IQ and has already faced Makhachev, so he'll know what to expect stylistically and what adjustments to make. 

He also typically fights at 145 pounds so the cut to 155 won't be as grueling for him as it would be for other fighters. Makhachev's grappling and full camp give him a slight edge here but not enough to play him at -250. I'm leaning toward the challenger at 2:1 or better. 

Prediction: Volkanovski moneyline (+220 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Under 4.5 rounds (+100)

It's always smart to take what fighters say with a grain of salt, but Volkanovski has always been a straight shooter and it is interesting he seems more confident in winning by finish than a decision this time around.

With this bout taking place in Abu Dhabi, he might feel like the deck is stacked against him if this goes to the judge's cards. In addition, his cardio might not be at its typical elite level without a full training camp under his belt, so he can't count on that helping him grind out a victory.

The fact he was also able to end the first bout in a dominant position raining blows upon Makhachev will likely give him more confidence to fight more aggressively this time around.

That said, his own durability will be tested by this short-notice fight and Makhachev is an elite grappler who racks up finishes on the mat. He was able to take down Volk four times in the first fight and although he struggled with Volk's shorter frame when hunting for submissions, he'll be relentless with those attempts.

The truth is both fighters have plenty at stake in this fight. A loss from Volkanoski would likely mean no more title shots at lightweight while Makhachev's reputation will take a hit if he's unable to finish Volk once again under these circumstances. Expect plenty of urgency from both fighters and bet on this fight ending Under 4.5 rounds.

Pick: Under 4.5 rounds (+100 at bet365)

Makhachev vs Volkanovski betting preview

Islam Makhachev hasn't fought since beating Volkanovski by unanimous decision in February. That extended Makhachev's UFC winning streak to 12 fights — the eighth-longest streak in promotion history.  

Makhachev had previously been criticized for the caliber of his opposition, but he put those questions to rest by dominating Charles Oliveira to win the lightweight title before beating Volkanovski four months later. 

A sambo specialist hailing from Dagestan, Makhachev has trained for years with his close friend — and former UFC lightweight champ — Khabib Nurmagomedov.

The 31-year-old is a terrific wrestler with relentless takedowns, ferocious ground-and-pound, and strong submission skills. That said, he has also leveled up his kickboxing and outstruck Oliveira while landing an impressive 60% of his significant strikes against Volkanovski.

Volkanovski bounced back from that defeat to Makhachev by picking up a third-round TKO victory against Yair Rodriguez in July. That was the fifth successful featherweight title defense for Volkanovski who has essentially cleaned out the division.

Volkanovski has gone 26-2 in his career and that loss to Makhachev is his only defeat since 2013 when he was competing at welterweight on the Australian regional circuit. 

Despite a short frame, Volk has a freakish 71-inch reach which gives him an advantage in striking exchanges. The 34-year-old is an excellent technical kickboxer with speed and elite cardio, and he also boasts strong wrestling ability. 

Makhachev vs Volkanovski tale of the tape

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