UFC 296 Rakhmonov vs Thompson Odds, Picks, and Predictions: No Senior's Discount Tonight

Shavkat Rakhmonov faces off against Stephen Thompson in a welterweight bout taking place at UFC 296 tonight from The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Rakhmonov looks like a future star, and a win over the dangerous veteran Thompson will solidify his status as an elite welterweight.

UFC odds figure Rakhmonov to make his arrival as a -650 favorite, and Thompson is a +425 underdog. 

Here are my free picks for Rakhmonov vs. Thompson at UFC 296 on December16.

Rakhmonov vs Thompson fight odds

Method of Victory	Shavkat Rakhmonov	Stephen Thompson
To win outright	-650	+425
To win by KO/TKO	+275	+1,550
To win by points	+235	+875
To win by submission	+120	+3,000
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on December 16, 2023.

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Rakhmonov vs Thompson picks

Fight prediction: Rahkmanov ML

For all the talk of Thompson’s resurgence, the veteran is in a tough spot stylistically against the rising Rakhmonov. Even in his 40s, Thompson can still strike with the best of them and come out on top, but it’s widely known that he can’t handle fighters who can get him on the ground. Being that Rakhmonov is emerging as one of the better prospects in terms of his overall skill set, including the fact that he has four submissions in his last five wins doesn’t bode well for him.  

Rahkmonov is a resourceful fighter. While Thompson is as crafty as they come and has great conditioning along with his years of experience, he hasn’t fared well historically against fighters who can successfully wrestle him to the ground. We’ve seen Thompson flounder against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns to the point where retirement wasn’t a bad idea for the fan favorite, and Rahkmonov is more along the lines of those two than Kevin Holland or Vicente Luque.

Thompson won those fights with his activity and not having to be afraid of wrestling or groundwork. This fight is all wrong for Thompson, and it will be a standout performance for the rising contender. Expect Rahkmonov to down the aging Thompson in a potentially one-sided battle.

Prediction: Rahkmonov moneyline (-650 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Rahkmanov KO/Sub

Thompson is a resilient fighter who needs to rely on all those years of experience to survive this fight. Rahkmonov is not only younger but he’s shown good striking defense and considerable power. From a technical standpoint, he won’t beat Thompson in a methodically paced striking match, but he can bully Thompson around with his wrestling and get him to the ground.  

Thompson is notoriously hard to finish, and if Holland couldn’t put him out as one of the most powerful strikers in the division, I don’t think Rahkmonov will. Luckily, Rakhmonov can exploit the veteran’s dislike for the ground.   

By mixing up his strikes, takedowns, and clinching, Rakhmonov won’t allow Thompson to get into his usual striking rhythm and will fall behind on the cards. Thompson should be crafty enough to survive, but he’s overmatched, and Rakhmonov will make the most of it when he does get him on the ground. 

Rahkmonov should score a rare stoppage over Thompson, and I’m going with the double chance on a knockout or submission for the best bet of the fight.

Pick: Rakhmonov by KO or submission (-170 at Bet99)

Rakhmonov vs Thompson betting preview

Rahkmonov is figuring to be a player in the welterweight division, and a win over Thompson at UFC 296 will lead to big fights in the year to come. In his last fight, Rahkmonov manhandled Geoff Neal en route to a third-round submission win at UFC 285. None of Rahkmonov’s fights in the UFC have reached the scorecards, and he has an average fight time of eight minutes and three seconds. 

“Wonderboy” Thompson saw two fights with Micheal Pereira fall through, only to have Rahkmonov fall on his lap. Thompson is also angling for a potential title shot, and he’ll have to turn away a ferocious challenger as he is in the twilight of his career. He’s 3-2 in his last five fights, though he has been inactive since his December 2022 win over Holland.

The fight solely hinges on whether Thompson can slow Rakhmonov down and avoid hitting the mat. Rakhmonov is slightly taller and longer than Thompson and has been working his way up the rankings against a variety of foes. Thompson has never been submitted in his MMA career and was stopped only once by Anthony Pettis in 2019, whereas each of Rakhmonov’s 17 wins has come inside the distance.

Rakhmonov vs Thompson tale of the tape

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