UFC 297 Strickland vs Du Plessis Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Can the Hard-Hitting DDP Be Stopped?

The UFC returns to Toronto tonight for the first time since 2018, with the headline event featuring Sean Strickland and Dricus du Plessis in the main event of UFC 297.

Strickland is coming off one of the biggest upsets in MMA history after defeating Israel Adesanya for the middleweight championship, and he's now set to make his first title defense against a fast-rising contender in du Plessis.

UFC odds opened with Strickland as a -160 favorite but money has come in on the challenger, slimming his odds to -105 as of Saturday evening. Here are my best free UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis picks and predictions for January 20.

Sean Strickland vs Dricus Du Plessis fight odds

Method of Victory	Strickland	Du Plessis
To win outright	-105	-110
To win by KO/TKO	+250	+245
To win by points	+440	+540
To win by submission	+790	+600
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on January 20, 2024.

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Strickland vs Du Plessis picks

Fight prediction: Dricus du Plessis ML

In this fight, Strickland's significant edge could lie in his cardio and experience headlining main events, with five of his last seven bouts extending the full 25 minutes. However, while du Plessis has never fought more than three rounds and has been criticized in the past for gassing out, that issue may have been fixed after he underwent nose surgery to fix a long-time breathing problem last year.

Du Plessis reportedly now has higher oxygen capacity, and if that's true, his biggest weakness might not be one anymore. That means the well-rounded and dynamic Du Plessis has more tools to get the job done. 

While Strickland may be a bit more sound defensively with his striking, du Plessis is more athletic, hits harder, and his ability to mix in his grappling provides more paths to victory.

Prediction: Du Plessis moneyline (+110 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Du Plessis inside the distance

Both of the guys prefer to fight at a high pace with forward pressure, which should result in a bout that primarily stays standing up with plenty of dynamic striking exchanges. 

There's also bad blood between them, with Strickland starting a brawl with du Plessis at UFC 296 following comments that the South African had made regarding Strickland's childhood abuse. While some have speculated that the incident was a publicity stunt to drive up interest in this event, the UFC isn't using it for promotional purposes and the reactions of both fighters suggest that the animosity is very real, especially from Strickland.

Strickland is typically the type of guy that will say anything to get a mental edge and du Plessis might have gotten into his head this time. That should make it an absolute war between these guys in the octagon, and that sort of striking battle favors du Plessis, who is bigger with more power and finishing ability.

In his last eight fights, Strickland has secured only one win by stoppage, and that victory was against Abus Magomedov, who had just one UFC bout when they faced off last July. On the other hand, du Plessis has an incredible 95% finish rate across 20 career victories and he has heavier hands while also possessing a vice-like grip with guillotine and rear-naked chokes.

I don't expect this fight to go the full 25 minutes, which gives du Plessis a good chance to win inside the distance.

Pick: Du Plessis by KO or Submission (+165 at Bet99)

Strickland vs Du Plessis betting preview

Strickland proved that he is more than a big mouth with a brash personality when he outpointed Adesanya last September. The 32-year-old almost knocked out Adesanya in the first round and then cruised to victory, with all three judges scoring the bout 49-46 in his favor. 

Strickland suffered a brutal motorcycle accident in 2018, and after a two-year layoff, he moved back to middleweight where he has surged up the UFC rankings. He is 9-2 in his last 11 trips to the octagon, with his only defeats coming against two-division champ Alex Pereira and in a close split decision against No. 3 contender Jared Cannonier. 

The 32-year-old is a high-volume striker with crisp boxing and an excellent gas tank. He lands 5.82 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.24, and his takedown defense sits at an impressive 84%.

While Adesanya was the unquestioned middleweight king, Robert Whittaker was seen as the second-best fighter in the division for years, so it's fitting that Strickland's first defense comes against the man who upset Whittaker last summer.

Du Plessis entered that fight as a +300 underdog but edged Whittaker in a competitive opening round before dropping and finishing him with a flurry of punches in the second frame. That was the eighth consecutive win for the South African, who has gone a perfect 6-0 with five stoppage wins in the UFC.

The former KSW Welterweight champion, du Plessis is an aggressive striker who throws with volume and power. He's also a dangerous grappler with 10 career victories coming by submission.

Sean Strickland vs Dricus Du Plessis tale of the tape

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