UFC 298 Whittaker vs Costa Odds, Picks, and Predictions: The Reaper's Still Got It

Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa is the co-main event of UFC 298 as this long overdue clash between premier middleweights finally goes down tonight, February 17, at Honda Center in Anaheim, California. 

The landscape of the middleweight division is shifting every month, and while Costa has long been seen as the face of the next generation, Whittaker is more than ready to prove he still belongs.

UFC odds have Whittaker as a -240 favorite, and Costa is a +185 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for Whittaker vs. Costa at UFC 298.

Whittaker vs Costa fight odds

Method of Victory	Robert Whittaker	Paulo Costa
To win outright	-240	+185
To win by KO/TKO	+300	+400
To win by points	+130	+625
To win by submission	+800	+1,750
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on February 17, 2024.

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Whittaker vs Costa picks

Fight prediction: Robert Whittaker ML

A lot has changed since these two were prematurely poised to fight at UFC 284 last year. Back then, Whittaker was still considered the third-best middleweight at worst and Costa was a lumbering brute better known for his pre-fight antics.

Things have changed ahead of this fight, particularly with us wondering how much Whittaker has left after Dricus Du Plessis rolled right through him, and if Costa’s long break from the octagon and new contract ends up bringing his focus to the forefront.

While it doesn’t hurt Whittaker that he’s only lost to the previous and current champions, he looked awful against Du Plessis and will struggle with Costa’s size and power.

The steady Whittaker picks his spots and doesn’t have the kind of firepower to discourage attackers from getting off him. Du Plessis went right to Whittaker at the start, and I expect the more explosive and athletic Costa to do the same. 

However, Whittaker isn’t going to let a one-note Costa just charge in and take the middle of the octagon. Ring rust should factor in for Costa, not to mention that he blocks the majority of punches with his face.

Seeing Costa look lost in defeats to Adesanya and Marvin Vettori — and him going the distance with an old, glass-jawed Luke Rockhold in his last fight — makes this a tough first fight back. 

Even if Costa's feeling fresh since his break from the action, Whittaker is going to crowd him early and use his experience to stifle Costa’s activity. I’m not buying that Whittaker is past it, and even if he was, Costa hasn’t proved himself ready to perform against this caliber of opponent.

Prediction: Robert Whittaker moneyline (-240 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Robert Whittaker to win by decision

Costa lands 6.50 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.38, which means he’s standing there and swinging at whatever moves. That lack of defensive awareness is a testament to who Costa is as a fighter, a one-dimensional striker who fights with aggression and size. A veteran like Whittaker couldn’t ask for a better opponent. 

As smart and resourceful as Whittaker can be, there are nights where he makes dire tactical mistakes such as in the first Adesanya fight and against Du Plessis, which resulted in stoppage losses.

He can’t play the long game here, as the fight is scheduled for three rounds. Slugging it out with Costa would be a bad idea, but for all his strength, Costa hasn’t scored a stoppage since his 2018 win over Uriah Hall.

If anyone has anything to prove about what’s left in the basement, it’s Costa. The long layoff coupled with his meandering performances over the last few years have dampened the hype around him. He’s pulled out of countless fights and is in a perpetual training camp. 

The Reaper should get back on track, and be motivated to prove he remains among the elite. Though Whittaker won’t get a stoppage, the completeness of his skills and Costa’s porous defense should be enough to notch him a decision win.

Pick: Robert Whittaker to win by decision (+130 at Bet99)

Whittaker vs Costa betting preview

Is time running out for Whittaker? After being considered the No. 2 fighter in the division for what felt like ages behind Adesanya, Whittaker was blown up by Du Plessis in a shocking upset at UFC 290.

Aside from Adesanya, Whittaker has beaten just about everyone of note at middleweight, including Marvin Vettori, Jared Cannonier, Yoel Romero, and Derek Brunson 

The popular Costa calls himself The Eraser, but he is in dire need of making his mark. The explosive Brazilian pounded his way toward his ill-fated showdown with Adesanya, and he hasn’t been the same since that second-round KO loss. This will be his first fight back since November 2022.

Whittaker is a pinpoint striker who darts in and out with big shots and is exceptionally tough, so he’ll likely take the fight to Costa in hopes of dictating the pace.

Costa is 1-2 in his last three fights, which were against top-flight middleweight opposition, and will have another top middleweight in front of him after a long layoff.

Whittaker vs Costa tale of the tape

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