Augusto Sakai vs. Don’Tale Mayes is scheduled for three rounds in the heavyweight division and is a featured attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night from The Apex in Las Vegas.
Sakai and Mayes are presumably fighting for their UFC careers at this stage. While their peak days are likely far behind them, both fighters will be giving the best of whatever they have left in this crossroads clash.
UFC odds are listing Sakai as a narrow -125 favorite despite a four-fight losing streak. Mayes needs a win to move on from the division’s lower depths, and he’ll need to do so as a +105 underdog.
Here are our UFC picks and predictions for Sakai vs. Mayes at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.
Augusto Sakai vs Don'Tale Mayes fight odds
Augusto Sakai vs Don'Tale Mayes method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +200 | +200 |
| To win by Points | +275 | +550 |
| To win by Submission | +1600 | +550 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on February 25, 2023.
Augusto Sakai vs Don'Tale Mayes picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Augusto Sakai vs Don'Tale Myers betting preview
This isn’t going to be a technical marvel or anything resembling a pretty fight. The winner of Sakai-Mayes will move on to another contract-threatening scenario, and the other might get bounced. That subplot adds intrigue to a matchup people familiar with the pro wrestling scene would call a “hoss fight.”
For what it's worth, Sakai looked to have a significantly higher ceiling before his skid. He secured wins over Andrei Arlovski, Marcin Tybura, and Blagoy Ivanov before things took a turn. The Brazilian went through a gauntlet of tough strikers in Alistair Overeem, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Tai Tuivasa, and Sergey Spivak, with each of them dunking on him. The man is due for a break, but is there anything left at this point?
Sakai needs to put whatever he has left into this one. He lands 4.73 significant strikes per minute at 48% and hopes his 54% takedown defense rate will be good enough to keep Mayes at bay. Currently, 11 of his 15 wins have been knockouts, and he's logged an average fight time of 10 minutes and 42 seconds.
Meanwhile, Mayes is a lurking journeyman type who's been serving the division’s purpose as an early stepping stone for prospects. After losing his first two matchups in the promotion to Ciryl Gane and Rodrigo Nascimento, he bounced back with wins over Roque Martinez and Josh Parisian. Mayes dropped a split decision to Hamdy Abdelwahab at UFC 277, only for the result to be changed to a no-contest after Abdelwahab tested positive for a banned substance.
“Lord Kong” is rough around the edges, but he can be a handful against the ill-prepared. A judo specialist, Mayes lands 3.65 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and logs 1.11 takedowns per 15 minutes at 53% accuracy. Mayes has notched five knockouts and two submission wins over nine victories, with his fights lasting slightly longer at 11 minutes and 47 seconds.
Comparing the two, Sakai holds clear advantages in power and experience, while Mayes is better when grappling. The question is which will play the most significant factor: Mayes' reach (81 inches against 77 inches for Sakai), or Sakai exploiting Mayes’ poor striking defense.
Augusto Sakai vs Don'Tale Mayes tale of the tape
| Augusto Sakai | Don'Tale Mayes | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 31 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-6 |
| 264 lbs | Weight | 257 lbs |
| 77 inches | Reach | 81 inches |
| 15-5-1 (11 KO) | Record | 9-4 (5 KO) |
Augusto Sakai vs Don'Tale Mayes UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Sakai ML
Sakai’s chin is a huge liability, but Mayes is one of the division's most technically challenged fighters. His striking defense is poor, his technique is questionable, and Mayes has logged a bad track record against capable opposition. For all of Sakai’s shortcomings, he's notched wins over two ranked fighters and a former world champion.
Mayes isn’t an accurate striker and gets too eager to shoot for a takedown. If Sakai maintains his distance and avoids the takedown attempts, that could be enough for him to line up a big shot.
Ultimately, I don’t see Sakai losing this fight, but this isn't a lead-pipe lock. Take Sakai to get back into the win column.
Prediction: Sakai moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Sakai ML
If there's anything left in Sakai's tank, it should be enough to fend off Mayes. There could be some dicey moments, and Sakai might fight conservatively to avoid another knockout loss. But Mayes isn’t as good as those who have beaten him in the past, whereas Sakai is maybe a level above Mayes.
With the moneyline as low as it is, the best bet is Sakai straight up at -125.
Pick: Sakai moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)
