UFC Fight Night Bonfim vs Dalby Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Don't Expect a Long Fight

The undefeated Gabriel Bonfim faces off against welterweight veteran Nicolas Dalby in the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card taking place in Sao Paolo, Brazil.

Bonfim seeks to further his credentials as a threat to the welterweight elite, and he’ll figure to have his hands full against the battle-tested Dalby.

UFC odds have Bonfim a massive -625 favorite, and Dalby a +455 underdog. Here are my free picks for Bonfim vs. Dalby at UFC Fight Night from Sao Paulo.

Bonfim vs Dalby fight odds

Bonfim vs Dalby method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 2, 2023.

Bonfim vs Dalby picks

Fight prediction: Bonfim

The more promising of the battling Bonfim brothers is getting a soft touch in front of a home crowd. Gabriel Bonfim has excellent submission skills, ending all three of his official UFC fights in the first round via submission. He looked impressive in submitting Trevin Giles at UFC 293, and at 26, he’s developing into a machine. 

Nicolas Dalby has had a long career but is still a capable veteran. The Danish warrior has gone 4-1 in his last five, including a decision win over Muslim Salikhov last June. Dalby is a solid striker with good power and submissions, but he hasn’t found much success beyond the mid tier of the division and doesn’t do anything extraordinarily well. 

This fight is being set up for Bonfim to look good. He is 12 years younger than Dalby and will be too fast for him. Dalby is a good striker and durable, but not resourceful enough to stop Bonfim from closing the distance and overwhelming him offensively. 

Prediction: Bonfim moneyline (-625 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Bonfim by decision in R1

Dalby hasn’t been finished in over 25 fights, but he’s getting older now and will be up against a fireball of an opponent. Bonfim’s striking masks his grappling well, and the fast hands will allow him to close the distance and make his opponent very uncomfortable.

Though Dalby is durable, Bonfim’s creative submission skills may allow him to sneak up on him and put him in an uncomfortable situation. Without the power to keep him honest — and average takedown defense at best — there’s a good chance Dalby will be on his back multiple times through the fight.

Pick: Bonfim to win by decision in Round 1 (+100 at DraftKings)

Bonfim vs Dalby betting preview

Bonfim’s explosive submission skills are making him a prospect to watch. The undefeated Brazilian has scored three consecutive first-round submission wins since joining the UFC. So far, he’s submitted Giles, Mounir Lazzez, and Trey Waters.

Dalby is a 13-year veteran enjoying his second stint with the UFC. The Danish battler has faced the likes of Salikov, Darren Till, Alex Oliveira, and Daniel Rodriguez. He’s been a serviceable fighter for some time, but couldn’t break from the back during his prime.

All eyes will be on hometown favorite Bonfim as he seeks to be the first fighter to finish Dalby inside the distance. To do that, he’ll have to work past Dalby’s two-inch reach advantage and test his veteran resolve on the inside.

Dalby will have to play matador to the Brazilian bull, and he’ll have to do with not having the kind of fight-stopping power or submission skills as he hasn’t won a fight inside the distance since 2019.

Bonfim vs Dalby tale of the tape

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic