Kai Kara-France vs. Amir Albazi is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight, with the bout just a few hours away.
This fight should be a banger between a pair of Top-10 flyweights, with Albazi facing the biggest test of his career against Kara-France, who's coming off an unsuccessful title challenge.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight, with UFC betting odds hitting the board with this matchup as a pick'em. Here are my best free picks and predictions for Kara-France vs. Albazi on June 3, from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi fight odds
Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Kai Kara-France | Amir Albazi |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +450 | +550 |
| To win by Points | +200 | +440 |
| To win by Submission | +1,500 | +270 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 1, 2023.
Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi betting preview
Kai Kara-France is 7-3 in UFC during his career, with two of those defeats coming against current flyweight champ Brandon Moreno. He hasn't been in the octagon since facing Moreno for the interim belt last July and getting finished at the end of the third round after 14 minutes of back-and-forth action.
That snapped a three-fight winning steak for "Don't Blink," who is one of the best technical strikers in this division. The 30-year-old utilizes his takedown defense to keep fights standing up, where he damages opponents with his volume and power.
Amir "The Prince" Albazi is on a five-fight winning streak, including four in a row since entering the promotion in 2020. Five of his last six victories have occurred inside the distance, with four of those coming by way of submission. He was a -425 favorite against Alessandro Costa in his previous bout last December, and knocked him out in the third round.
Albazi is a high-end grappler with relentless wrestling and dangerous submissions. His stand-up shouldn't be underestimated, however, since he is very effective with his straight punches and has a powerful uppercut that he used to drop Costa.
This bout is a major step up in competition for The Prince. Costa was making his UFC debut, while his other three wins in the octagon came against Malcolm Gordon (2-4 in his last six fights), Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-5 in his last six), and Francisco Figueiredo (who recently lost decisively to Gordon).
Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi tale of the tape
| Kai Kara-France | Amir Albazi | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 69 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 24-10 (11 KO) | Record | 16-1 (5 KO) |
Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Amir Albazi
This fight is a classic matchup between an elite grappler in Albazi and a striking specialist in Kara-France, so it will likely come down to who can implement their style.
Kara-France has excellent defensive wrestling and has stuffed 87% of all takedown attempts. However, it will be harder for him to stay on the outside in the smaller cage of the UFC Apex, and Albazi does an excellent job of mixing in his striking to disguise his takedown attempts.
Albazi takes very good angles with his boxing, and his use of leg kicks helps set up his fast entries. Kara-France might be able to stuff the first few takedown attempts or scramble up from the mat, but if Albazi is relentless with his wrestling, he will eventually be able to take him down — just like Rogerio Bontorin and Askar Askarov were able to during shorter three-round bouts.
Once Kara-France was taken down, it was a bit alarming how quickly he gave up his back to Bontorin and Askarov. Although those two were unable to do anything with that opportunity, the stronger and more clinical Albazi will get the sub if given that opening.
When it comes down to it, the striking difference between these two isn't as large as you might expect, while the grappling gap is too massive for Don't Blink to overcome. I'll lean towards Albazi in what should be a close bout.
Prediction: Albazi moneyline (-110 at bet365)
Fight best bet: Fight to go the distance - No
Regardless of who gets the win, I don't see this bout going the distance. Both fighters like to push the pace, and have phenomenal finishing ability for this weight class.
If Kara-France is able to keep this fight standing up, his dangerous striking on the outside could lead to a knockout win. But don't count out the knockout potential of Albazi, who has very good hands and power in his shots as well.
However, if Albazi is able to take Kara-France to the mat and hold him down with his strength and top control, he could easily get the finish as well. Kara-France was able to extricate himself from vulnerable positions against Bontorin and Askarov but he'll have a tougher time doing the same against a submission specialist like Albazi over a bout scheduled for 25 minutes.
Pick: Fight to go the distance - No (-110 at DraftKings)
