UFC Fight Night Smith vs Rountree Jr. Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Big Tree Don't Fall Hard

Light heavyweights Anthony Smith and Khalil Rountree collide in the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night taking place this Saturday, December 9, from The Apex in Las Vegas.

Smith and Rountree are jockeying for position in the crowded peak of the light heavyweight division, and the winner of this fight should remain on the short list of major fights in 2024.

UFC odds have Rountree as the -230 favorite, and Smith is a +190 underdog. Here are my free picks for Smith vs. Rountree at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Smith vs Rountree Jr. fight odds

Smith vs Rountree Jr. method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on December 7, 2023.

Smith vs Rountree Jr. picks

Fight prediction: Rountree ML

There has been an unexpected level of intrigue with Smith recently. His bizarre meltdown at the hands of Johnny Walker seemed to close the book on his run as a top competitor, only for him once again to defeat Ryan Spann in his most recent fight. Rountree was scheduled to face Azamat Murankanov, thus Smith stepped in on two weeks' notice as the former fell ill with pneumonia.  

Smith’s competitiveness is commendable, but this is a tough match for him to take on short notice. Rountree is an explosive striker who sets up his offense with low-leg kicks, Smith’s kryptonite. Rountree is on the best run of his career with three stoppages in his last four wins.

We’ve seen Smith slow down the pace in recent fights, and that may not be by design. We’ve seen Smith get widely outstruck when he’s faced other top opponents recently. Rountree isn't getting his momentum dashed by a former great on a delayed decline.

I’m going with Rountree to win his fifth in a row.

Prediction: Rountree moneyline (-230 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Rountree by KO/TKO/DQ

Despite recent showings, Smith is still a capable veteran with a great tool kit and high-level experience. On any given night, Smith can be a real challenge, though by natural progression and perhaps dealing with undisclosed personal issues, his run as a top-shelf light heavyweight is near its end. As is the unwritten rule in combat sports, the past gives way to the future.  

Rountree is on fire, and a win over a decorated veteran could get him closer to a Top-10 ranking. He’s a bad matchup for Smith, and he gets an added handicap catching the veteran on short notice.  

We'll see Rountree getting off to a fast start to take advantage of Smith’s trademark toughness. Smith won’t stop coming at him, but Rountree should blast him with a big shot that puts him down for the count.

Pick: Rountree by KO/TKO/DQ (-135 at DraftKings)

Smith vs Rountree Jr. betting preview

Rountree looks to have turned a page after a two-fight skid and has won his last four. The Muay Thai specialist has explosive power and is aggressive to boot. He’ll stalk his opponents and wear them down with heavy hooks and leg kicks.

Smith has been a mainstay near the top of the light heavyweight division for some time, though he’s trending downward since a failed title challenge against Jon Jones in 2019. The 35-year-old is a veteran of 55 fights, having been in the UFC since 2016. Since the Jones fight, Smith is 5-4 with all his losses coming in fights against top contenders. 

Rountree’s kickboxing figures to trouble Smith. He'll be in trouble if Smith can’t keep Rountree on the outside. The veteran has been stopped nine times in his MMA career, and Rountree has eight stoppages in 12 wins. 

Smith vs Rountree Jr. tale of the tape

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