Robert Whittaker and Dricus Du Plessis collide, with the winner booking a shot at the middleweight title this Fall as the two face off on the undercard of UFC 290, taking place this Saturday, July 8, from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
UFC odds indicate Whittaker will book his third fight with Israel Adesanya, coming in as a -400 favorite. Du Plessis is a significant +300 underdog.
Du Plessis may be on the road to face Adesanya as well, but he has a huge obstacle to overcome in Whittaker.
With title implications weighing heavily on Whittaker vs. Du Plessis, let’s look at how I see this big UFC 290 showdown unfolding on July 8.
Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis fight odds
Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Robert Whittaker | Dricus Du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO/DQ | +100 | +500 |
| To win by Decision | +215 | +1,100 |
| To win by Submission | +1,200 | +1,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on June 8, 2023.
Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis betting preview
Once again, Whittaker is on the cusp of a shot at the middleweight title. Many believe he might finally get Adesanya after two previous defeats, and he’s certainly still at the top of his game at 32. In his last fight, Whittaker dominated Marvin Vettori, and his only losses in the last nine years have been to Adesanya.
Whittaker is an excellent tactician who does so many things well in the octagon. Though he’s not a knockout artist, he’s beaten some of the best strikers in the division. And though not a submission or grappling savant, he’s shut down some of the division’s best grapplers. Considering he’s fought the likes of Vettori, Jared Cannonier, Kelvin Gastelum, and Yoel Romero over the years — and beating them handily — Whittaker is still the next-best fighter in the weight class.
There’s nothing Du Plessis has in his loadout that Whittaker isn’t prepared for. Whittaker has better cardio and experience and is the smarter fighter. Not only is he quick on his feet, but he can patiently wait on the outside and potshot if things get too testy. The only knock on Whittaker is that he’s not a finisher, not having scored a stoppage since 2017.
If you’ve been following MMA news lately, you would have sworn the UFC is doing whatever it can to make Du Plessis vs. Adesanya happen. For whatever reason, they are still pushing that narrative while putting Du Plessis in an unfavorable situation versus Whittaker. Du Plessis’ last win came against Derek Brunson, a second-round TKO where both fighters were extremely gassed ahead of the stoppage.
Du Plessis isn’t without hope. From a statistical standpoint, he has advantages in significant strikes landed per minute (6.72 vs. 4.48), striking accuracy (55% vs. 42%), and a three-inch reach advantage. He is primarily a grappler, scoring 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes at 47% accuracy.
But we’re not expecting Du Plessis to try and bomb Whittaker out. He’s going to do his best to relegate this to a grappling contest and save his power for shorter bursts to last him the fight. The minute he starts to peter out, Whittaker is going to smother him and drown out his hopes of a title fight.
Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis tale of the tape
| Robert Whittaker | Dricus Du Plessis | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 29 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 185 pounds | Weight | 185 pounds |
| 73 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 25-6 (10 KOs) | Record | 19-2 |
Robert Whittaker vs Dricus Du Plessis UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Whittaker
This fight is happening in the hopes that Du Plessis does the unthinkable to legitimize him as a title contender. They could have chosen anyone else for him to face, but because it’s Whittaker, that just isn’t happening. There’s little I’ve seen from Du Plessis thus far that suggests that he’ll beat Whittaker outside of a shocking first-round stoppage, and even that seems remote.
Prediction: Whittaker moneyline (-400 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Whittaker by decision
Whittaker hasn’t scored a stoppage in seven years, and because this is a three-round fight, I don’t expect him to score one here. Du Plessis hasn’t demonstrated that type of stopping power, nor does he have the ground game to shut Whittaker down. I expect Whittaker to outlast Du Plessis and outsmart him at every turn on his way to a dominant decision win.
Pick: Robert Whittaker to win by decision (+215 at DraftKings)
