Alexander Volkanovski makes his fifth defense of the featherweight championship as he takes on Yair Rodriguez at UFC 290 on Saturday night. Volk is coming off an unsuccessful title challenge at lightweight and will look to keep clearing out the 145-pound division and make a case as the Featherweight GOAT.
Oddsmakers expect him to take care of business against Rodriguez with UFC betting odds opening with the champ as a -400 favorite and Rodriguez coming back at +300. Here are my best free UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodríguez picks and predictions for July 8 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Volkanovski vs Rodriguez fight odds
Volkanovski vs Rodriguez method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Alexander Volkanovski | Yair Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +190 | +550 |
| To win by Points | +135 | +1,000 |
| To win by Submission | +1,100 | +1,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 8, 2023.
Volkanovski vs Rodriguez picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Volkanovski vs Rodriguez betting preview
When we last saw Alexander Volkanovski, he lost his bid to become a two-division champ when he faced Islam Makhachev for the 155-pound strap in February. Volk entered that fight as a +300 underdog but fought a competitive bout and took the third and fifth rounds, according to a pair of judges. He was able to fight off Makhachev's elite grappling and ended the fight in a dominant position on top of the lightweight champ while raining down punches.
Prior to that defeat, Volkanovski had won 22 fights in a row and had gone a perfect 12-0 in the octagon.
Despite a short frame, Volk has a freakish 71-inch reach that gives him an advantage in striking exchanges. The 34-year-old is an excellent technical kickboxer with speed and elite cardio, and he also boasts strong wrestling ability with ferocious ground-and-pound.
Yair Rodriguez is coming off an impressive second-round submission win against Josh Emmett in February, which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus and the interim belt. He now has back-to-back victories since losing to Max Holloway in a thrilling clash in November of 2021.
It isn't often that a loss seemingly raises somebody's stock but it happened for both of these guys with Volk's loss to Islam and Rodriguez's defeat to Holloway. Holloway has really distanced himself as the second-best fighter in this division but "El Pantera" was able to hang with him for 25 minutes and won a couple of rounds despite getting outstruck 230-159.
The 30-year-old is one of the most entertaining strikers in the UFC and throws a high volume of kicks and punches from a variety of angles. He is 10-2 in the UFC and has earned an incredible nine fight bonuses.
Volkanovski vs Rodriguez tale of the tape
| Alexander Volkanovski | Yair Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 154 lbs | Weight | 145 lbs |
| 71.5 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 25-2 (12 KOs) | Record | 16-3 (6 KOs) |
Volkanovski vs Rodriguez UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Volkanovski
Rodriguez is a dangerous striker and Volkanovski has gotten tagged with head kicks in the past, which is El Pantera's bread and butter. That said, Volk also has a granite chin and has the fight IQ to make adjustments against a kick-heavy fighter.
As quick as Rodriguez is, we've seen how fast Volkanovski's hands are when he pieced up Holloway in their third bout, and his ability to move in and out of range is extremely impressive.
He's also the more well-rounded fighter and is more than capable of using his wrestling to take Rodriguez out of his comfort zone. Rodriguez has shown improved jiu-jitsu in recent fights but his defensive wrestling is subpar and if he gets taken down by Volk, the champ is strong enough to maintain top control.
Not only did El Pantera lose to Holloway and get pounded by Frankie Edgar, but he also took a close split decision against Charles Rosa and was likely going to lose to the Korean Zombie before knocking him out with just a second left in the fight. Volkanovski has never lost at featherweight in his MMA career and with his well-rounded skillset and physical ability, he will defeat Rodriguez here.
Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski ML (-380 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Volkanovski in Round 4, 5, or by decision
As dominant as Volkanovski has been, he hasn't usually finished Top-5 opponents. In fact, six of his last seven fights have gone the distance. I'm expecting Volkanovski to be cautious of Rodriguez's dangerous kicks in this matchup and avoid engaging in protracted striking exchanges.
He'll likely rely on his formidable striking defense and distance management while using his wrestling in close quarters. That should be conducive to this fight getting into the championship rounds if not going the full 25 minutes.
I like Volkanovski to win by decision but I also think he's capable of getting a late finish as well. After all, while he doesn't always display one-punch knockout power, he has the ability to pile up damage over several rounds and get a stoppage later on.
I could see Volk accumulating enough damage on his feet for a TKO against Rodriguez or finishing him by ground and pound after wearing him down. If your book has prop odds for Volk to win in the championship rounds or by decision at anywhere near -150 jump on it.
Pick: Volkanovski in Round 4, 5, or by decision (-125 at FanDuel)
