UFC 293 Tafa vs Lane Picks and Predictions: Tafa Takes Over in Coveted Rematch

Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane is a heavyweight bout serving as one of the featured attractions on the UFC 293 undercard, taking place this Saturday, September 9, at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

These two had a brief encounter in June that was halted early due to an accidental eye poke, and these heavyweights are eager to pick up where they left off.

UFC odds have Tafa the favorite at -210, and Lane a +200 underdog. Here are my free picks for Tafa vs. Lane at UFC 293 from Sydney.

Justin Tafa vs Austen Lane fight odds

Justin Tafa vs Austen Lane method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 9, 2023.

Justin Tafa vs Austen Lane picks

Fight prediction: Tafa ML

Tafa and Lane meet again three months after an errand eye poke saw their initial fight end after less than a minute. Nothing has changed since then, and this figures to be a short, explosive fight between two bombers with little to no regard for defense.

While Tafa may be the shorter fighter at 6-feet with a 74-inch reach, it's difficult to ignore his advantages in both striking power and experience. Lane earned his UFC contract with two appearances on Dana White's Contender Series but remains a relatively raw prospect.

Tafa boasts an impressive 5.02 significant strikes per minute with a 54% accuracy rate, and all of Lane's losses have come by stoppage within the first round. These statistics help tip the scales in Tafa's favor.

Lane's athleticism may enable him to push forward and attempt to control Tafa against the cage, but he'll eventually be forced into trading strikes. Unfortunately, Lane's eagerness to impose his power on his opponents is a common rookie mistake, as demonstrated by his history of early stoppage losses.

There isn't that much to separate these fighters in terms of the extent of their skill, but Tafa's edge in accuracy and one-punch power should be enough.

Prediction: Justin Tafa moneyline (-210 at BetMGM)

Fight best bet: Tafa by KO/TKO/DQ

Although controlling the distance and staying on the outside would be Lane's ideal strategy, it's likely to evolve into a slugfest fairly quickly. That won't bode well for Lane, as he'll be leaving himself open for Tafa to blast him.

Tafa will find himself in firing range as Lane comes forward. Once they begin to trade blows, it's only a matter of time before Tafa connects with something big and puts Lane on unsteady legs. These two started to follow that script last June, but the eye poke stopped the fight before we could see how it would progress.

Naturally, this should follow the same pattern. This time, though, we’ll see the fight play out like it was meant to with Tafa winning by knockout.

Pick: Tafa to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-165 at DraftKings)

Justin Tafa vs Austen Lane betting preview

Tafa and Lane meet again three months after an errand eye poke saw their initial fight end after less than a minute. Nothing has changed since then, and this figures to be a short and explosive fight between two bombers with little to no regard for defense.

All six of Tafa’s (6-3, 1 NC) wins have come by stoppage. Since joining the UFC, he’s scored wins over Juan Adams, Henry Hunsucker, and Parker Porter. He’s been defeated by Yorgan De Castro by knockout and dropped decisions to Carlos Felipe and Jared Vanderaa.

The Auckland native lands 5.02 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy with an average fight length of five minutes and twenty-two seconds.

Former Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Lane (12-3) fought across various regional promotions before securing a UFC contract in September 2022. Lane’s first shot at the UFC ended in calamity when Greg Hardy knocked him out in 57 seconds back in 2018.

The athletic Lane will enjoy advantages in both height and reach compared to Tafa and is 2-0 in fights that go beyond the first round.

Justin Tafa vs Austen Lane tale of the tape

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