Holly Holm vs Mayra Bueno Silva is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday night in Las Vegas.
Despite being 41 years old, Holm is one of the greatest combat sports athletes of all time, and is still the No. 3 ranked contender in the women's bantamweight division. Meanwhile, Bueno Silva is at No. 10 in the bantamweight rankings and will look to continue her ascent.
UFC odds opened with Holm as a -160 favorite but have shifted to -175, with Bueno Silva coming back at +150. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva picks and predictions for July 15.
Holm vs Bueno Silva fight odds
Holm vs Bueno Silva method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Holly Holm | Mayra Bueno Silva |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +500 | +1,000 |
| To win by Decision | +100 | +400 |
| To win by Submission | +2,200 | +350 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 12, 2023.
Holm vs Bueno Silva picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Holm vs Bueno Silva betting preview
Holly Holm is fresh off a unanimous decision win against Yana Santos in March. That allowed her to bounce back from a close split-decision loss to Ketlen Vieira last year and improved her record to 3-1 in four fights since 2020.
Holm is 8-6 in the octagon, but many of those defeats came against elite fighters like Amanda Nunes, Chris Cyborg, Valentina Shevchenko, and Germaine de Randamie. She won the women's bantamweight championship in 2015 with a highlight-reel head kick against Ronda Rousey but has come up short in four title fights since.
"The Preacher's Daughter" is a refined striker with excellent footwork and she was a multiple-time world champion in boxing before making the move to MMA. She's also very comfortable with throwing kicks and has vastly improved her clinch work and offensive wrestling.
Mayra "Sheetara" Bueno Silva is on a three-fight winning streak, most recently submitting Lina Landsberg in the second round to earn a Performance of the Night bonus in February.
Bueno Silva is 5-2-1 in the UFC but hasn't lost since moving up from flyweight to bantamweight. The 31-year-old is a pressure fighter that likes to attack the legs and body with kicks. She's at her best on the mat where she has used her high-level grappling to rack up five submissions in her last six wins.
Holm vs Bueno Silva tale of the tape
| Holly Holm | Mayra Bueno Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 135.5 lbs | Weight | 136 lbs |
| 69 inches | Reach | 66.5 inches |
| 15-6-0 (8 KOs) | Record | 10-2-1 (1 KO) |
Holm vs Bueno Silva UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Holly Holm
Bueno Silva is coming off a victory against a 41-year-old fighter with a background in striking and now faces another fighter who on the surface matches that description. However, Holm has proved that she can still fight at a high level while Landsberg has lost four bouts in a row.
Matter of fact, Holm could very easily be on a four-fight winning streak since 18 of 20 media outlets thought she should have had her hand raised against Vieira in her only defeat during that span.
While Silva is very dangerous with submissions if this fight ends up on the mat, Holm is the superior striker at range and can use her clinch work to keep this fight against the cage when the distance gets closed.
We've seen Silva bullied by a big and physical fighter in Manon Fiorot before and Holm checks off those physical attributes while also being more skilled and experienced. Holm's decline has to happen at some point but I don't think it begins this weekend.
Prediction: Holm ML (-165 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Holm by decision
Holm might be best remembered for that highlight-reel knockout of Rousey, but she isn't as explosive of a striker as she used to be. Her last win by finish came all the way back in 2017 and she doesn't even have a single knockdown in seven fights since.
Bueno Silva will also try to get her grappling going and Holm has been more comfortable with using her own offensive wrestling in recent bouts — getting at least four takedowns in three of her last four victories. The grappling exchanges between these two will drain the clock and stifle the striking volume of both fighters.
With Holm's last four wins coming by decision, back her to win by points again in a fight that should feature plenty of her controlling Bueno Silva against the cage.
Pick: Holm by points (+115 at bet365)
