buffettgambler

Again, deciphering whether the DRay's bet at 70.5 -185 has greater utility than a middle at the Greeks current Under offering price is dependent on your intrinsic value of the Rays season total win expectancy and your risk preference as an individual handicapper.

Again, to simplify matters, lets assume Greeks current market price is equivlant to true intrinsic worth.  This would present a profitable middle expectancy, as your slow to move book allows for the Over expected profit @-180 to be greater than the Under expected loss at -105 by about 1.8%.  The "value at risk" return is is greater than the Over stand alone expected return.  Having said that, one often overlooked variable in dealing with futures is the cost of capital for EV cappers.  When the cost of capital is quantified into expected returns of futuers with EV cappers, futures are not terribly compelling, thus middling futures is even less compelling (unless you are on credit).

 

Also, one major caveat is the underlying mathematics behind quantifying expected returns of futures.  The Mathematics actually makes the expected returns of the middle higher for handicappers that quantify the expected win rate of the DRays to be below 73.5 and above 70.5. Anything out of this range, and the expected value of the middle diminishes substantially.  Based on your bullish comments on the Rays, I would assume you think they will win over 74 games.  If this is in fact true, your expected returns on this middle becomes negative EV.

 

In other words, stick with your Over 70.5 bet.

Best of luck.

 

One would first have to quantify an intrinsic season's total worth to decipher an equivlant O/U pricing at 70.5 commensurate to the Greek's pricing.  To simplify matters, assuming the Greek's price you posted is "true intrinsic pricing", an equivlant O/U line at 70.5 would be about -295/+210.  However, keep in mind, that quanitifying equivlancy is dependent on intrinsic worth, and therefore subject to change based on handicappers expectations.

I am not sure where you see 20 to 1, but if that price is still attainable it may warrant a play solely for the potential cross sectional arbitrage opportunity it can set up.  As far as value is concerned, I think they are fairly priced within a 18-20 to 1 payout.  The disparity between them and the best team in the division is commensurate to a lower payout.  However, having to bypass 4 teams in which they are not as good as makes this bet not appealing. 

 The Astros have four sub par pitchers in their rotation with not much upside combined with a sub par bullpen.  Their hitting is solid, but still ranks third best in their division. I would prefer betting on a long shot with a lot of young players on their team, as they provide more upward ability to pull off an upset.

Best of luck. 

 

Solid post (and poster).

 

My top 3 Overs are the A's, Twins and DRays.  Top 2 Unders are the Phillies and Mariners.

American League 1.) A’s Over 74 -115 Comment: In my opinion, this team is a steal at this price, even if they do trade Blanton. With big names leaving the roster in the likes of Haren, Piazza and Swisher, and not being replaced by any noticeable names in the free agent market, the market is expecting a drop-off from their 76 win mark last year. However, a healthy Harden and Dushseshser shore up a very underrated pitching staff. The return of Street and Foulke, and expected improvement from Calero give the A’s a solid bullpen to compliment their pitching staff. Their lineup is not potent, but more effective than they appear on paper. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team finished above .500 2.) Twins Over 73.5 -115 Comment: Here is another team in which the market over discounted the departures of big name players from their team. Even without Santana, the Twins possess a decent group of young pitchers that could surprise the division. Backed by the best bullpen in the AL and a lineup that has never been accustomed to carrying the team, and it is hard to imagine the Twins witnessing a drastic drop-off from their underachieving season last year. The Twins added some decent free agent signings that add some depth to a to a line that has been weak in the backend. 3.) Devil Rays Over 72 -115 Comment: Although the Devil Rays may be the “sexy” pick early on, this team still may be underrated due to having two big name teams in their division. The Devil Rays problem has always possessed such an inferior bullpen, a deficiency that has been drastically shored up this year (although they still have a below average pen). The Kazmir/Shields combo is very solid, while Garza provides a lot of upside as well. Their lineup has always flown under the radar due to their pitching woes, and this strength should pay more dividends this year. According to my early season power ratings, there is from 3 to five teams worse than the Rays, yet they are priced as if there were only two. 4.) Red Sox Under 94-115 Comment: I paid the price for constantly fading the Red Sox last year, but will have no problem doing it this year if the market presents that opportunity. It appears early on as if they will, as they are priced as if they are the best team in the league-something they no longer are this year. The high standard deviation in their pitching staff, and a bullpen that overachieved last year, should prevent their pitching from being as dominant as they were last year. Their aging lineup is still very solid, but simply overvalued. The Yankees are the best team in their division, while the Angels and Tigers are arguably better as well. 5.) White Sox Under 76 -115 Comment: At first blush, it appeared the White Sox did enough shoring up in their bullpen and adding some hitters to fill holes that were detrimental to their success last year. However, their starting pitching staff is still too weak, and should offset improvements in other facets of this team. This team has stockpiled aging players past their prime in their lineup, bullpen and starting staff, and plays in a division with four teams better than they are. The team underachieved last year at 72. However, being one year older and still having holes, 76 should be hard fro them to bypass. 6.) Mariners Under 85.5 -115 Comment: Last year, the Mariners were one of the teams I bet on the most, as they constantly traded below their intrinsic value until their prolonged winning streak got fully noticed in the market place. However, this team appears to be the most overvalued in this years future market. This team overachieved last year, and added the most hyped free agent in the marketplace in the off season. The Mariners have a top heavy rotation and a top heavy bullpen, which is usually the recipe to an overvaluation. They are no exception. Add an overrated lineup that should rank near the bottom of the league, and we start dealing with a very mediocre team.

Here are the Over/Under futures I have (or plan to place) place prior to season’s start. Although most bets have yet to be placed in anticipation of better prices, they are certain to be placed, as they are trading well below intrinsic value. I may add more plays at a later date. National League 1. Braves Over 86 -105 Comment: Although on paper, the Braves have not improved much, they should accomplish a sizable jump off an 84 win total last season. In my opinion, the Braves may be the most underrated team in the NL, and a top three contender in the league. With a lot of hidden free agents in the likes of Mike Gonzalez (only 18 games last year), Texeria (only 54 games for the Braves), and replacing Soriano for Wickman in the closer role from the onset, provides a lot of hidden value on this team. The Braves possess a very underrated bullpen, and a deep pitching staff and deep lineup necessary to prevent prolong losing streaks. The market is discounting wins from this team in exchange for inflating the totals on the Mets and Phillies. 2. Brewers Over 84 -110 Comment: The Brewers have a makeup of a “sexy” team that is usually accompanied by an inflated line. However, their huge drop-off late last season prevented them from bypassing the 84 win clip they should bypass this year. Despite having a lot of hitters coming off career years, these players possess youth and upside potential that should prevent a letdown season. Sizable improvements from Bush, Weeks, and Capuano should add some wins, while key free agent signings to shore up bullpen concerns provides balance to this team. In my opinion, the Brewers are the best team in their division, yet are being overshadowed the perennial high expectation teams like the Cubs. 3.) Nats Over 71.5 -110 Comment: Believe it or not, I feel that the Nationals are better than 3 to 5 teams in the NL on paper, yet are being priced as if they were only better than two. The other good news is the notion that they are a team that plays better than they do on paper. They are a team that constantly gets swept under the rug as they lack any big name sluggers or anything remotely close to a potent line. However, that is something I have not overlooked (valuing them as the second worst lineup in the NL). What the market has not discounted aside from their gritty play not customary for a cellar team is their above average bullpen and pitching staff that should improve off of last year. 73 wins was their total last year. In my opinion, they will at least match that this year. 4. Cubs Under 87.5 -110 Comment: Rarely will you see the Cubs potential not fully quantified in the market place. This year appears to be no exception, being priced higher than all but two teams in the NL. The Cubs have a good lineup, good bullpen, and good pitching staff. However, good does not cut 88 plus wins. The sub par backend of the rotation and closer question marks is not customary for a team with such high expectations. Like most free agents from Japan, the addition of Fukodome is more hype than substance, and will not go unnoticed in the marketplace. 5. DBacks Under 86.5 -105 Comment: In my opinion, the DBacks are the 4th best team in their division, yet are being priced as if they were second to only the Dodgers. The Dodgers, Padres and Rockies are all carrying small value on their Over win expectancy, which appears to be a conglomeration of the overvalued status of the DBacks. Their pitching staff is very solid, but is very ordinary in the NL West. Webb and Haren is a solid 1-2 punch, but both should drop-off from last year’s numbers. Johnson and Davis are well past their prime, and the high standard deviation of expected returns in their pitching staff should provide for streaks good and bad. The talent pool in the NL West has increased substantially this year- making it an attractive division for an Under play or two. The Dbacks appear to be the most intriguing opportunity for such an approach. 6.) Phillies Under 88 -125 Comment: In my opinion, the Phillies are the most overvalued future in the NL this year. This is not much of a surprise, as teams possessing elite lineups usually have high expectations early in the season. However, it is a lineup filled with players prone for a drop-off- players that played integral roles in their team’s success last year. Their pitching staff is well below average, and lacks depth. Their bullpen appears solid on paper, but has many concerns. These team went on a late season tear, and beat up on the NL East last year, to squeak by the 88 win clip. The improved East should take wins off their 42-30 division record, and a late season collapse from the Mets will more than likely not be repeated. 7.) Reds Under 76 -115 Comment: Here is another team with the public perception of a potent lineup carrying high expectations early in the season. However, even with this team overachieving last season, it didn’t get terribly close to a 76 win mark. They did nothing in the off season to see improvement much improvement. Their lineup is overrated, and actually slightly below average. A drop-off out of Griffey, Gonzalez and Phillips combined with the absence of Hamilton leaves questions to be answered. Their bullpen is below average even with the addition of Cordero, while their pitching staff is the worst in a weak division. This team should remain in the low 70 win total mark this year.

Thanks fellas.

 

Pulse,

I think the lines on the NFC championship game appears efficiently set.  If anything, there is some value on the Giants, but not enough to warrant a play in my opinion.  I think the total is set right.  With the apparent strucual change in football this year favoring the Overs, an Under has to be screaming value.  This one is not.

Best of luck.

Chargers +14 I know I am starting to sound like a broken record, but once again an inflated price tag is accompanying the Patriots. Rarely do you see a team playing as well as the Chargers getting two touchdowns in compensation for betting on them. They have covered and won six straight games and have shown so signs of slowdown. What is more rare is the notion that a team is getting 14 points, but arguably has the better running game and defense. But that’s what happens when a team’s bandwagon is as full as what the Patriots one has become. When a team’s bandwagon becomes full, they become priced for perfection (not the perfection of winning every game, rather bringing their “A” game to the field each time out). Any signs of a slowdown or playing below potential, and the inflated line are too much for any team to support. This is what has happened to the Patriots as their defense has regressed, leading to a 1-6 ATS in their last seven games heading into this game. Until linesmakers stop inflating their line in anticipation for a heavy following, I will continue to bet against them. There is no other team I would rather back going up against the Patriots than a team playing with as much confidence and double revenge on their mind. Even with an injured Gates, and a less than 100 percent Rivers and Tomlinson, the Chargers can find success offensively Sunday. The Patriots defense has shown inconsistency in defending the running game. Their aging linebacking group has regressed in recent weeks and could have trouble with the athleticism and perimeter attack Tomlinson can establish. With Rivers getting better each week, he has been able to exploit an underrated group of receiving options that could allow the Chargers to establish a balanced attack. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers find more success offensively than expected. The Patriots defense is overrated, regressing, has problems masked by their offense, and has yet to dominate a solid offense in over two months. There is not a defense in the league that I could say I like my chances against the Patriots offense. But there aren’t many defenses I would rather have matched up against them than the Chargers. Brady has shown the ability to be productive against blitzes and when teams rush only three of four. What he has shown a problem with is when opponents disrupt the pocket interiorly with the rush. There may not be a better pass rush in the league in making such happen. With the Chargers secondary playing at an elite level, expect this style of pass rush to curtail the Patriots passing game, and make them less productive compared to recent weeks. Although stopping the Patriots from moving the chains is near impossible, the Chargers having the best red zone defense in the league can prevent their drives from consistently ending in touchdowns, which significantly jeopardizes such a high spread from covering. The Patriots are not the most fun team to bet against, but getting two touchdowns for betting on a team playing as well as the Chargers is simply too good to pass up. Expect their confidence, motivation for revenge and fundamental strengths to be enough to keep this one close and prevent the Patriots from running away with the game. Chargers @ Patriots Under 47 Good value on the Under in this game, and is also a decent hedge for the health concerns of the Chargers three key players. If the Chargers want to have success offensively they are going to have to heavily rely on their running game, as expect Rivers and/or Volek to repeat last weeks performance may be wishful thinking. The Patriots defense has regressed, but can defend the pass well. The Chargers passing game is simply not strong enough or consistent enough to expect them to have the upper hand, or anything but complimentary to their running game. Much like the Chargers defense, the Patriots are stingy in the red zone. Expect the majority of the Chargers better drives to end with field goals. The Patriots may have to rely more on the running game again this week, as the Chargers pass defense is playing as well as any in the league the last couple of months, and possess the strengths that have given Brady problems in the second half of the season. The Patriots have been Over machines predominantly because of the tempo their offense and ability to finish off their better drives with touchdowns at a high clip. With an expected slowdown in both facets (more reliance on their running game and matched up against the top red zone defense), the Patriots will have hard time matching their mean points in this game. I like Under.

Saturday
Seahawks +9
The Packers are not your typical 13-3 team, and one could argue there exists five AFC teams that are better than they are. However, throughout the year, books were also reluctant in giving the Packers too much credit, allowing them to be the most profitable team to bet on all season. Now come playoff time, there appears to be an over adjustment for a regular season hidden gem, as nine points is simply too many to lay on a team who has found regular season success with a lot of smoke and mirrors.

Favre has received most of the credit for the Packers turnaround this season, as some argue a structural change in his play, as he has drastically improved limiting costly errors. However, one could argue that this improvement was a product of his environment, and getting to play arguably the softest schedule in the league when measured by quality pass defenses. In fact, Favre has not played a quality pass defense in nearly three months when he put forth a sub par game against the Redskins. This trend will come to an end this week when Favre goes up against the best pass defense he has faced in months, a defense known to force quarterbacks into mistakes. Don’t be surprised if Favre reverts back to his recent troubled past and makes costly mistakes. Without the decisive edge the Packers usually have in the air, they will have to rely on their suspect running game more in this one- a running game that is heavily dependent on the success of their passing game. As mentioned last week, the Seahawks have one of the most underrated run defenses in the league, dominated Portis last week, and should make it hard for the Packers to establish much on the ground this week. A lot of talk has been on how detrimental the weather may be on the Seahawks, but weather that can curtail any offensive production is also counterproductive to large favorites. Expect the Seahawks underrated defense to continue to find success while Favre may revert back to the last couple of years.

During the season, I consistently mentioned that the Packers defense was not getting the credit they deserved for this year’s turnaround. Although this notion holds true, I also feel they have slowly regressed as the season progressed, a regression that has been masked by an incredibly soft schedule when measured by opponent’s offensive strengths in December. The Seahawks also have the luxury of avoiding the Packers best defensive asset- their run defense, as they are one of the most pass happy offenses in the league. The depth the Seahawks have at receiver (which gets deeper this week with the return of Branch) can allow them to avoid the top heaviness the Packers have at corner, and utilize multi receiver sets that take advantage of the lack of nickel back the Packers have.

Experience may also be a factor in this game, as aside from Favre, the Packers don’t have much. There team is young, may take time to settle in, or allow their emotions to work against them. The Seahawks may be inferior when on the road, winning just three games all season away from home. However, they have lost just one road game all season by more than three points.

Everyone appears to want a position on team that has covered more games than any other team this year, is consistently a heavily backed public team, and is well rested and playing at home. However, I will go the other way in this one, as the Packers smoke and mirror success and lacking and decisive advantages (expect them run defense) should keep this game closer than most think. Too many points for the Seahawks to pass up.



Jaguars +13.5
I am not sure how you could give one of the best and hottest teams in the league nearly two touchdowns, but once again, the Patriots are overvalued and priced for perfection.

The Patriots have been far from impressive of late, covering just one of their last six games. They have also not been blowing teams out as much as they were during the first half of the season, winning by 14 or more just three times during the second half of the season despite playing a soft second half schedule. The Jaguars have all the fundamental tools to keep this game relatively close, and the confidence and momentum to add support as well. The Patriots defense has shown weaknesses in recent weeks and is most vulnerable against the run. This bodes well for the Jaguars chances mainly for a couple of reasons. The obvious one being that they are heavily dependent on the run game, and have one of the most dominant running attacks in the league capable of exploiting any defensive weakness a team may have in their run stopping ability. The other two benefits are 1.) It negates the Belichick effect that can take its toll on young quarterbacks by limiting the role of Garrard. 2.) When the Jaguars have success on the ground, their drives are incredibly clock demanding, thus shortening games which can prove costly for a large favorite. Expect the Jaguars to find success on the ground, and wear down an aging front seven that has appeared to show their age in recent weeks. The Jaguars have a highly underrated passing attack that played below their potential last week. Expect a better effort this week from Garrard to compliment the running game. Being the best scrambler in the league will also allow him to negate the complex looks the Patriots will show him, and avoid costly errors.

There is no denying the Patriots possessing the best offense in the league. However success they are used to may not come to fruition this week, as their strength is countered by the Jaguars strength, their pass defense. Teams are finding better ways to limit Moss’s productivity, and it first comes with having a physical and talented corner to match up with him- which the Jaguars have. The Jaguars biggest weakness on defense is their run defense. However, the Patriots reluctance to exploit this facet makes them less vulnerable, while a definitive attempt to exploit it is welcomed, as a heavy dose of running is not customary for such a large favorite.

As I have been doing most of the year (unfortunately) I am going to bet against the best team in the league. The Jaguars running game should be the difference, as it will keep the Patriots offense of the field and give them fewer opportunities to establish a blowout. The Patriots should win, but will likely do so by a one possession score.

Sunday Chargers @ Colts Under 46 There has been a structural change in the Colts team that started late last season that has not been consistently reflected in their totals. Public perception still includes and anchoring bias on their defense being more vulnerable than they really are, which has periodically created value in their games when matches up against quality defenses in their own right. Simply put, these two defenses are too good to support a mid forty line. The Colts have one of the best and most underrated defenses in the league. They have possessed a dominant pass defense for a couple years now (which now may be the best in the league) and have drastically shored up their run defense. The Chargers offense is highly inconsistent and their weaknesses are magnified in the playoffs. With Gates most likely out and Rivers being undependable, the Chargers passing game will not find much productivity against this Colts pass defense. They will be heavily dependent on Tomlinson, who will consistently see 8 and 9 man boxes like last week. This should prevent domination from him and put him into more of a grind it out mode that takes a lot of time off the clock. The Chargers offense has played the role of bullies this year, running up scores against sub par defenses, while not being able to hold their own for the most part against the better defenses they were up against. This holds true during their first match up against the Colts, where their offense was dominated, but masked by the solid play of their defense. Don’t expect much this week from the Chargers offense, and success will come at the expense of clock time. The Chargers are the hottest defense in the league and have shown no signs of letup. More importantly it is a style defense that has always given Manning problems (3-4 that can put pressure on the quarterback) and handed Manning his worst performance of his career two months ago. The Colts may be the only pass defense in the league better than the one the Chargers possess. Although a repeat performance out of Manning is highly improbable, expect once again for the Chargers ability to put pressure on the quarterback and now possessing two solid corners to pose problems for the Colts passing game and encourage them to be more dependent on the running game. The Colts should find some success on the ground, but like the Chargers, that success will come at the expense of clock time. Although the Chargers eight game streak of allowing 17 or less points should come to an end, a typical Colts offensive showing is not likely. Rarely do you see two elite pass defenses supported by a mid 40’s total. Almost every time, value exists on the Under when such a predicament occurs. Offense success for both teams will probably come on the ground, allowing clock time to make it hard for a high scoring game to occur. I like the Under. Giants @ Cowboys Under 47 It is only natural for a total to be inflated in a match up that has occurred already twice this season, and resulted in a 80 points showdown followed by a 51 point game. I will not pass up this opportunity to bet against an inflated line for a variety of reasons. There has always been a saying in the NFL that it is hard to beat a team three times. This is not because of the underlying probability of accomplish such a task, but the underlying fundamentals behind it. Mainly, teams have a hard time establishing new game plans, as weaknesses exploited in the first two meetings are worked on, fixed, while teams are most familiar with what to expect and what went wrong. With weaknesses in the first two meetings predominantly coming on defense, expect both defensive units to shore up these deficiencies and find another avenue to exploit. The Cowboys offense has seriously regressed since the first two meetings. Romo is not playing at the same level, while the injury to Owens can prove costly, as not only is production limited, but it should force Whitten and Crayton into more double coverage’s and limit their production. The Giants defensive line continues to get progressively better as well, making me think Romo will not have the time in the pocket that he received in their first two meetings. All this leads me to believe a heavier reliance on the running game is in the cards for the Cowboys this week, and fewer risks will be taken in the passing game. This will force the Cowboys to chip away at the field instead of moving the ball in big chunks in their first two meetings. Manning is clearly establishing an upward trend, but if people have not learned by now, this level of play is never sustainable for Eli. Sunday is a good time for a drop off in productivity, as he faces a team heavily familiar with his weaknesses, and possesses the ideal pass rush and solid corners to give Manning and the Giants passing game problems. The return of Jacobs has changed the Giants into a more power offense, a change that will more than likely continue this week, as it will be up against the Cowboys least poignant defensive strength. When the Giants do have success on offense, much like the Jaguars, it comes at the expense of a lot of clock time. With the edge the Cowboys have in defending the pass, the Giants may become one dimensional and have problems finding the end zone. The result should be a drop-off in points compared to their first two meetings against the Cowboys. Expect both defenses to shore up the weaknesses that occurred in their first two meetings that lead to two Overs. Combine this with the regression of Romo, injury to Owens, improved play of the Giants defense, and inconsistencies of Manning, and this game should not be as high scoring as the line indicates. I like the Under.

Saturday Seahawks +9 The Packers are not your typical 13-3 team, and one could argue there exists five AFC teams that are better than they are. However, throughout the year, books were also reluctant in giving the Packers too much credit, allowing them to be the most profitable team to bet on all season. Now come playoff time, there appears to be an over adjustment for a regular season hidden gem, as nine points is simply too many to lay on a team who has found regular season success with a lot of smoke and mirrors. Favre has received most of the credit for the Packers turnaround this season, as some argue a structural change in his play, as he has drastically improved limiting costly errors. However, one could argue that this improvement was a product of his environment, and getting to play arguably the softest schedule in the league when measured by quality pass defenses. In fact, Favre has not played a quality pass defense in nearly three months when he put forth a sub par game against the Redskins. This trend will come to an end this week when Favre goes up against the best pass defense he has faced in months, a defense known to force quarterbacks into mistakes. Don’t be surprised if Favre reverts back to his recent troubled past and makes costly mistakes. Without the decisive edge the Packers usually have in the air, they will have to rely on their suspect running game more in this one- a running game that is heavily dependent on the success of their passing game. As mentioned last week, the Seahawks have one of the most underrated run defenses in the league, dominated Portis last week, and should make it hard for the Packers to establish much on the ground this week. A lot of talk has been on how detrimental the weather may be on the Seahawks, but weather that can curtail any offensive production is also counterproductive to large favorites. Expect the Seahawks underrated defense to continue to find success while Favre may revert back to the last couple of years. During the season, I consistently mentioned that the Packers defense was not getting the credit they deserved for this year’s turnaround. Although this notion holds true, I also feel they have slowly regressed as the season progressed, a regression that has been masked by an incredibly soft schedule when measured by opponent’s offensive strengths in December. The Seahawks also have the luxury of avoiding the Packers best defensive asset- their run defense, as they are one of the most pass happy offenses in the league. The depth the Seahawks have at receiver (which gets deeper this week with the return of Branch) can allow them to avoid the top heaviness the Packers have at corner, and utilize multi receiver sets that take advantage of the lack of nickel back the Packers have. Experience may also be a factor in this game, as aside from Favre, the Packers don’t have much. There team is young, may take time to settle in, or allow their emotions to work against them. The Seahawks may be inferior when on the road, winning just three games all season away from home. However, they have lost just one road game all season by more than three points. Everyone appears to want a position on team that has covered more games than any other team this year, is consistently a heavily backed public team, and is well rested and playing at home. However, I will go the other way in this one, as the Packers smoke and mirror success and lacking and decisive advantages (expect them run defense) should keep this game closer than most think. Too many points for the Seahawks to pass up. Jaguars +13.5 I am not sure how you could give one of the best and hottest teams in the league nearly two touchdowns, but once again, the Patriots are overvalued and priced for perfection. The Patriots have been far from impressive of late, covering just one of their last six games. They have also not been blowing teams out as much as they were during the first half of the season, winning by 14 or more just three times during the second half of the season despite playing a soft second half schedule. The Jaguars have all the fundamental tools to keep this game relatively close, and the confidence and momentum to add support as well. The Patriots defense has shown weaknesses in recent weeks and is most vulnerable against the run. This bodes well for the Jaguars chances mainly for a couple of reasons. The obvious one being that they are heavily dependent on the run game, and have one of the most dominant running attacks in the league capable of exploiting any defensive weakness a team may have in their run stopping ability. The other two benefits are 1.) It negates the Belichick effect that can take its toll on young quarterbacks by limiting the role of Garrard. 2.) When the Jaguars have success on the ground, their drives are incredibly clock demanding, thus shortening games which can prove costly for a large favorite. Expect the Jaguars to find success on the ground, and wear down an aging front seven that has appeared to show their age in recent weeks. The Jaguars have a highly underrated passing attack that played below their potential last week. Expect a better effort this week from Garrard to compliment the running game. Being the best scrambler in the league will also allow him to negate the complex looks the Patriots will show him, and avoid costly errors. There is no denying the Patriots possessing the best offense in the league. However success they are used to may not come to fruition this week, as their strength is countered by the Jaguars strength, their pass defense. Teams are finding better ways to limit Moss’s productivity, and it first comes with having a physical and talented corner to match up with him- which the Jaguars have. The Jaguars biggest weakness on defense is their run defense. However, the Patriots reluctance to exploit this facet makes them less vulnerable, while a definitive attempt to exploit it is welcomed, as a heavy dose of running is not customary for such a large favorite. As I have been doing most of the year (unfortunately) I am going to bet against the best team in the league. The Jaguars running game should be the difference, as it will keep the Patriots offense of the field and give them fewer opportunities to establish a blowout. The Patriots should win, but will likely do so by a one possession score.