Cowboy_Bear

Hey guys, I do not post alot but figured I'd give my point of view regarding tonights game.  I graduated from Baylor 10 years ago and I am a die hard fan (and holy sh!t the athletic program sucked back then - the current students dont know how good they have it).

When the selections initially came out, I thought Baylor got an extremely lucky draw.  A 6 seed in SA? You got to be kidding me!  I figured they would handle their business against Nebraska and Creighton, and I was actually more worried about Nebraska than I was Creighton.  Turns out, I didn't need to be worried at all.  Baylor rolled in pretty much every aspect of the game. 

Drew extended his 1-3-1 zone out which has helped Baylor make thier run over the last month or so.  The problem with extending the zone is it leaves plenty of room for the mid-range jumpers.  So far, nobody has been able to hit those shots except for Iowa State in the Big 12 Champ Game (and ISU wasn't able to hit them in Waco either).  Baylor hasn't played a team that consistently hits the 10-12 foot jumper as well as Wisconsin all season.  In my opinion, if Baylor continues to play the extended 1-3-1 zone against Wisconsin all game, I'm afraid Baylor will lose.  I believe that Baylor's only shot here is to bring back the zone in a normal fashon, thus taking away the mid range shot; however, that will leave the 3 pt open all night if Wisconsin can effectivly rotate the ball (which I believe they can).  The other option is going to a man defense which they have played a little bit, especially earlier on in the season.  I think if the Bears choose this route, they could be in way over their heads as this simply isn't the defense the players have had a whole lot of experience with and I'm afraid this late in the season it might wear on them a bit.

In conclusion, it looks like Baylor's defense is the key to this game.  They have three options: 1, continue to play their extended zone and hope that Wisconsin misses the 10 foot jumpers (if Baylor does this, I belive Wisonsin will win by 7-10 points), 2, reduce the zone to take away the mid range shot (I belive this is Baylor's best bet to win the game - essentially betting that Wisconsin will shoot poorly from the arch), 3, go to a man defense and try to play big boy ball (I believe this to be the worse option and Bo will show his coaching superiority in this situation)

These are just my opinions from watching my Bears all year.  I could be wrong in each aspect - we'll see.  Also, keep in mind that I am a homer and my vision might be clouded and subconsciously looking for the worse.  Just wanted to give y'all my opinion on tonight's game from someone who knows the program well.  I am on Wisconsin -3 and the Wisconsin ML.  Good luck however you decide to bet.

Yes Tom, I was at the game.  Again, BU's D has forced at least one TO in every game back to 2010 and are 12-0 when forcing two or more TO's.

Do you think RGIII went 80 yards every possession last year?  No, the D sucks but they can get the ball back to the offense which will help them yet again be a top 10 offense in the nation for the third strait year.

I respecfully disagree dawgprint.  I know BU doesn't have RGIII but they have the 2nd/3rd best receivers in the Big 12 and oh yeah... you are severly underestimating Nick Florence.

Just be careful with your pick.  Remember Coach Briles knows how to groom his QB's (Kolb, Keenum, RGIII, now Nick).

If BU doesn't cover, it won't be because of the QB.

Ride em baby.  I'm on them BIG at -7 and just pounded it more at -9.5

You could buy the hook though I think BU wins by 2-3 TD's.

Ston442... I respectfully disagree.  It's not about who Baylor has beaten this year.  It's about Coach Briles being an offensive genious and continuing this from the previous two years.  Moreover, look at the QB's CAB has developed: Kolb, Keenum, RGIII, and now Nick Florence is severaly under-rated.

Baylor consistenly puts up big numbers in every game and their D, while still sucks, is improving under Bennett.  Baylor will put up 30+ in almost every game this year and I'm pretty sure the D can handle UL-M better than it will versus the Big 12. 

I beg to differ with the fella who said Baylor is a pass first team.  You will not find a team that runs a more 50/50 offense than Baylor.  Moreover, Baylor is right behind Oregon in the pace of thier offense - so much so to where it cost them about 5 false start penalties in thier last game.

Also, Coach Briles has not played Lache Seastrunk hardly at all this year.  The times he got in the game he is averaging 13.5 yards per carry.  There is starting to be a lot of support for Lache getting more carries around Baylor Nation and I fully expect him to get more carries than he did in his first two games (I've seen this kid play twice now and he is quick as lightning - a true talent).

Coach Bennett's D has forced at least 1 TO in every game dating back to 2010 and BU is 12-0 when the D forces 2 or more TO's.  Now I'm not saying that our defense is good, but I am trying to make the point that the defense will give the offense AT LEAST one extra possesion. 

I know this team like the back of my hand.  Coach Briles will hang more than 40 on UL-M.  A best bet and I'm going to place it right now!

Good Luck and Sic Em Bears!

Thanks!  I don't know much about Xavier except that Fease is a beast.  In past matchups, RS Soph Corey Jefferson matched up really well with bigger dudes down low (he had his best game of the season against T Robinson). 

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

November: 46-38, +5.20

November Leans: 39-38

December: 65-70, -9.45

December Leans: 67-79

January: 52-39, +15.80

January Leans: 40-37

February: 63-44, +65.90

February Leans: 56-49

March: 61-43, +83.35

March Leans: 38-37

I think if there is a few things that concern me with Xavier here, it’s probably a lack of depth and going against size. Baylor’s defensive pressure isn’t all that of a concern here with me, and Xavier’s lack of pressure itself is probably a good thing within the match-up and schemes that each want to play. As for Xavier going against size they’re 13-4 this year against top 100 teams in terms of effective height, so that concern gets put to rest. The 13 wins came by an average of 11 points, and some of the losses were some not so great situational spots (going against double revenge in one game, another game on the back end of a three game roady, and the other two losses at Umass and Memphis who lost a combined two games at home this year).  In terms of value, Baylor was a whopping favorite of just one point more in their past few games than what I see tonight. I put Xavier in a different echelon of teams aside from South Dakota State and Colorado, and a big reason is because of the guard play of Holloway and Lyons. I think Baylor has a slight advantage in the paint, I’m just not sure how big of a factor it has within the game. When you look at how Xavier defends, they don’t use all that great of pressure, they play up the line, and excel in the half court style with great help defense. These types of teams have tended to give Baylor fits this year b/c of their inability to hammer the basketball into the inside. They have settled for jump shots (some ugly at times), and it’s not really what you want to have against the Xavier defense. Good offensive teams welcome the opportunity to go up against it, but not teams that have little to no outside scoring (they have two wins, four losses). What’s a tad bit shocking is that they haven’t really faced off against a defense that uses little pressure and a ton of help defense. Just six instances this year, so what they’re facing tonight isn’t really the norm for them on the season. Tiny bit of revenge for Xavier as Baylor beat them by five a few years ago (Frease, Holloway, Lyons did play that game). Defensively, if Baylor doesn’t go zone I’m not sure who Heslip guards, but that’s an advantage in itself. If they do go zone, then what’s a better backcourt in the country than Tu and Lyons attacking against it? All in all, just tough for me to go against good, experienced guards catching the points, also noting the really good defensive presence in the post to combat Baylor’s lone advantage in the game.

3* Xavier +6

2* Xavier ML +240

Lean: Kentucky -9.5

It for the night. 

GL

Ropp... Much respect man!  I follow you on twitter and look forward to your write ups on Covers.  Obviously, I hope you are wrong on all accounts... but I doubt that will be the case.  I wanted to get your more in depth thoughts on this match up.  How do you feel about the transitional defense from zone to man, man to zone Drew has been throwing at teams as of late?  PJIII has been struggling and the last time he struggled for a while he came out in a big way (dont remember if it was the Kansas or KState game), it just seems like he is due a huge game.  Building on PJIII... teams have focused so much on him that Heslip has been going crazy from 3 pt land - Can the Xavier D shut down PJIII as well as BU's outside shooting as of late?

I know this BU team like the back of my hand and cannot figure this one out. 

I first saw the line and wanted to jump all over Tech, but PJ3 is starting to play better and getting back into his roll, add to it that Quincy Acy has started playing like the team leader and it's senior night.

I'm laying off this one because I could see a game like the OSU game where we beat them by 45.  If I were forced to bet, I'd either take Tech 2nd half or Baylor first half.

Hope these stats help you guys out.  It seems for the most part both these teams are at the top of the Big 12 in crucial statistics.

It looks like Baylor and Kansas are about tied when it comes to offense but Kansas has the better defense.

Baylor leads the Big 12 in scoring offense at 75.7 ppg.

Kansas is second in the Big 12 at 74.6 ppg.

Baylor is third in the Big 12 in FG% at 48%.

Kansas leads the Big 12 at 49%.

Baylor is second in the Big 12 in FT% at 77%.

Kansas is seventh in the Big 12 at 69%. 

Baylor is second in the Big 12 in 3pt% at 38%.

Kansas is seventh in the Big 12 at 33%.

Baylor leads the Big 12 in assists at 16/game.

Kansas is second in the Big 12 at 15.4/game.

Baylor is third in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding at 12/game.

Kansas is fifth at 10.6/game.

Baylor is seventh in the Big 12 in scoring defense at 68.7/game.

Kansas leads the Big 12 at 63.1/game.

Baylor is fifth in the Big 12 in FG% defense at 43.4%.

Kansas leads the Big 12 at 39.4%.

Baylor is fifth in the Big 12 in 3pt FG% defense at 32.2%.

Kansas is seventh in the Big 12 at 36.4%.

Baylor is forth in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding at 22.8/game.

Kansas is second at 24.6.

Baylor is second in the Big 12 in bloacks at 4.3/game.

Kansas is first in the Big 12 at 5.8/game.

Baylor is third in the Big 12 in steals at 7.5/game.

Kansas is second in the Big 12 at 7.9/game.

Baylor is eigth in the Big 12 in turnover margin at -0.8/game.

Kansas is second in the Big 12 at +1.8/game.