HolyBull

The scores I / we could make if we could only know when geared down horses will regress next out.

I check out Jonathan and his stuff all the time on Twitter.  Excellent stuff, thanks for posting.

HB

Shin injury discovered this a.m.

Javier open now.

HB

Not sure about the FL Derby winners, however, not sure it matters what Derby prep they won anyway.  Whether it's the Wood, the Blue Grass, Arkansas, SA Derby....the statistic is very real.

Guys, without a doubt Constitution can win this race.  However, he got the perfect trip @ GP and my money will be on an individual with a more battle tested resume.

HB

I hear you and I'm not saying I disagree because I have had similar thoughts, and still do.  However, I'm trying like hell to change/tweak my handicapping ways a bit.   Instead of always trying to find ways to exclude contenders, trying to focus on reasons to include them. Certainly can help with your price.

Some reasons:

1) His Tampa race was pretty darn good. Vinceremos & Conquest Titan could flatter or flatten him based on performances this weekend.

2) He's bred top and bottom to excel at classic distances and has something of a 2yo foundation.

3) trainer been there, done that.

4) In the grand scheme of things that race meant absolutely squat (other than the 250k purse).  I'm not underestimating this.

5) His price will be amazing (40-1?)

6) I did read the Calder track has been playing very deep, maybe there is an "excuse" for the poor time.

I have searched long and far for comments from the trainer/connections but it's been crickets thus far. Looking to see what excuses are and if they intend to move forth towards KYD.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, not ready to toss just yet.

HB

Keep grindin' bro! lovin' the analysis.

HB

HB

Quote Originally Posted by Roused:

the real problem is there is no 5 of 6 payoff !

Granted that sucks a bit, but hence the .20 wager.

I love it and I am also watching the .10 pick 5 at Pimlico.  These are two great ways to play for relatively small $.

HB

This thread is great, thanks Atlas! It's a who's who of Covers horseracing.

As far as Hoppertunity is concerned, I think any horse who came out of the Rebel (as Mikey P stated) should be upgraded.  That race was a slug fest in the lane and everyone gained some serious experience in that one. I think "battled tested" should be a trait for derby horses and that race was a war.

HB

I agree Kursh.  I think the further outside he draws the better his chances are.  The closer to the inside the more his chances are compromised.

HB

He was not lone speed in either, and as a matter of fact didn't even get the lead until the middle of the far turn yesterday.

Just sayin'

HB