UnVaxxed1

@Fuse

 Are you saying I don't ask to have it re-rated?  That's the way I'm leaning, honestly, just knowing if I had lost, I wouldn't be whining.  He'll know that too.  I think it's just more bad luck for me.

I'm friends with my bookie.  He has a website and does it full time.  But instead of depositing crypto up front, he extends credit.  Our settle up limit is $10k cash.  I've paid him 3 times and never collected (surprise!). 

So yesterday, I was 3-3 in cfb.  When I logged into my account, one of my winners was $110 to win $100 instead of my standard $1,100 to win $1,000.  I have made daily bets with him in baseball for a year and a half and my unit is always a dime.  (example:  risking $2,300 to win $1,000 on a -230 favorite or risking $1,000 to win $1,350 on a +135 dog).  He knows this.  He knows I'm a dime player.

I can see how this could go the other way.  If the bet had lost, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have said a word.  Should I put the pressure on him and ask if he can re-rate my $100 win to a $1,000 win?  I am inclined to not ask.  FWIW, I have no suspicion that he or his software changed the bet after I made it... I was high AF when I logged in to place the bet.

Would you ask to have the bet re-rated?

I took Nebraska in-game money line to win.

If they don't finish the game, will my bet win?  I believe there was 8:19 left in the 4th when it went into delay.

@UnVaxxed1

 It's just stupid.  Today, the royals are listing a guy on 1 day of rest.  Maybe it's a bullpen game or maybe they'll take him down between now and first pitch and list another starter.  Toss up.

@JDD

 I listed Blackburn yesterday for the A's about 2.5 hours before first pitch.  I didn't even notice when the game started that Blackurn wasn't pitching.  Thought I had a winner until this morning when I started filling out my spreadsheet.  My bet was against Blackburn and Pruitt did not trigger a betting situation for me.  Still frustrating.

I think I will start printing out a listing of the starting pitchers for the day and compare it to scores and odds several times a day to check for changes.

Is what you are saying kind of similar to what the Rays started in 2018 & 2019?  Bull pen games?  Prior to the Rays, I don't think there was such a thing as a bullpen game.

@Sladerunningfox

I understand the difference between action and listed.

My question is, what are the rules on a team's ability to change starting pitchers at the last minute?

It seems like it could be an advantage to tell the other team you'll be facing this pitcher... they study film on that starter all day... and then you do a rug pull and start another pitcher that they have not been reviewing film on all day.

It feels like this is happening way more this year than it what we saw in the past.

Is it my imagination or are more and more teams making starting pitcher announcements late in the day, very close to first pitch, more often than in the past?

I listed Blackburn with the A's yesterday about 2.5 hours before game time.  They ended up starting Pruitt instead.  Totally F'd me up.  My bet on Red Sox was a push because I didn't notice this and I listed both pitchers.

I also noticed the Dodgers did not name a starting pitcher until very close to first pitch yesterday too.

Anybody know what kind of rules MLB has on this?  Seems like it's worse this year in the past.  Frustrating.

I just started watching baseball in mid-2017.  Got interested in it because of betting.  I don't know how many games I've watched but last night I had my only bet of the day on German.  Watched the entire game.  I feel like I won the lottery of long shots.

There are 4,860 starting pitchers per year in the regular season.  Last perfect game was in 2012.  Odds of watching this happen were about 1 in 48,000

Feel free to monitor me, we'll see how I do.  The White Sox still have not posted a starting pitcher so here is what I have on the other 9 games...

Pick #1) 6:40pm EST  Reese Olson is making his 3rd career start.  He might be a better pitcher than I realize, his first game score was 60.  Last outing, his game score was a pathetic 24.  60% of pitchers will fail to get winning game scores in 2 out their first 3 starts.  Take the Royals on the run line here +1.5 -150 only if your book extends nickle juice to run lines.  If you don't get nickle juice on run lines, take the Royals to win +133.  If you don't get nickle juice on baseball, the winning move is to get your money and move it to a book that does.  I only take run lines on dogs because I want to win more bets than I lose... but run lines and money lines should work out the same as long as your book is offering nickle juice on both.

Pick #2) 8:10pm EST Mad Max has had two terrible starts in a row, game scores of 24 & 37.  Hunter Brown has had two good starts in a row, with game scores of 70 & 56.  Looking for the reversal today.  Mets -101

I will post a follow up to this if the White Sox list a pitcher that causes me to bet that game.

This is my first time to post my bets.  My monitored results ytd:  0-0

@UnVaxxed1

 An easier chart:

Expt %**** Line offered ***** Vig on Dog * Vig on Favorite

57.1% **** (-138/+128) **** 2.28% **** 1.44%

66.7% **** (-210/+190) **** 3.33% **** 1.59%

75.% ***** (-325/+275) **** 6.25% **** 1.92%

I book with a low vig shop for MLB offing -105.

EXAMPLE 1:  Their lines on 66% favorites come in at -210/+190.  A vig calculator will tell you the vig on this is 2.22%.  But is the vig evenly divided between the favorite and the dog, as most people would assume?

-210/+190 indicates a 66.7% probability, or 2 out of 3, as far as I'm concerned.  Close enough.

Let's say you bet the dog 3 times and you win 1 and lose 2.  You risk $100 per game, so your total risk was $300 and your total loss was $10...

(+$190) (-$100) (-$100) = (-$10)

If you risk $300 and lose $10, in percentage terms, betting the dog lost 3.33%

Let's say you bet the favorite 3 times and you win 2 and lose 1.  You risk $210 per game, so your total risk was $630 and your total loss was $10...

(+$100) (+$100) (-$210) = (-$10)

If you risk $630 and lose $10 on the favorite, in percentage terms betting the favorite lost $1.59%

EXAMPLE 2:  Now, bump the odds of winning to 3 out of 4.  The book I'm using offers that as -325/+275.  Vig calculator shows vig of 3.14%.

Assume you bet the dog 4 times and go 1-3.  You lose $25 on $400 of risk.  Betting the dog lost 6.25%

If you bet the favorite in that example and go 3-1, you lose $25 on $1,300 of risk.  Betting the favorite lost 1.92%

EXAMPLE 3:  I'll use a final example... 4 out of 7, which is 57.1%.  That is reflected with -138/+128.

If you bet the dog 7 times and win 3 and lose 4, you'd be out $16 on $700 of risk.  Betting the dog lost 2.28%.

If you bet the favorite 7 times and win 4 and lose 3, you'd be out $14 on $966 of risk.  Betting the favorite lost 1.44%.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

In the first example (-210/+190) the vig on the dog is about 2X the vig on the favorite.

In the second example, (-325/+275) the vig on dog is about 3.25X the vig on the favorite.

If this final example, (-138/+128) the vig on the dog is about 1.5X the vig on the favorite.

Sooooo... am I right to assume that a system to bet MLB favorites has lower vig than a system to bet MLB dogs?  Seems like I should be focused on betting favorites only.  Or am I doing something wrong with my math?

Yesterday morning, I bet Astros and listed both pitchers.  At that time, the listed pitcher for the A's was Luis Medina.

My bet on the Astros was a push, even though they won the game 10-1.

Sometime during the day, the A's decided to start Ken Waldichuk instead of Luis Medina.

Is there an app that will alert you to late pitching changes?

So, I'm relatively new to baseball.

Yesterday the Giants started a pitcher named Scott Alexander.  He went one inning and was pulled after getting one K, no walks and no hits.

The announcers were saying this is a bullpen game for the Giants.

I remember in 2018 & 2019, the Rays were constantly playing bullpen games.

When the Rays were doing this all the time, I was lead to believe this was a new thing, never tried before.

My question for Covers people:  are bullpen games a new phenomenon or have bullpen games always been a thing?

Both starting pitchers look terrible on paper.

@camby700

 When they finish the game, will the starters from yesterday have game scores, just like it was a normal game?

This game was suspended in the top of the 3rd yesterday.  The game will be resumed today.

Are all the bets on yesterday's game cancelled?

@mrusso

Cease has a 10 game average game score of 62.4 vs 58.0 for McClanahan.  The 4.4 advantage for Cease is fairly well negated by the Rays home field advantage.

Both pitchers are Cy Young candidates.  The team with the pitcher that gets the higher game score wins 82%.

Batting is not that important.  The Yankees have had excellent batting for as long as I can remember.  On my spreadsheet, between '08 & '20, when the Yanks faced pitchers with 10 game averages of 60 or higher, they were 50.9% to win.  On another spreadsheet I have that goes '08 thru '21, teams with 15 or more home runs in their last 10 games are 404-490 (45.2%) when facing pitchers with 10 game average scores of 60 or higher.  Although I love watching and betting on strong hitting teams like the Yankees, they usually get blanked by ace pitchers like Cease & McClanahan.

Rays are 17-3 and no baseball team is that good.  Rays are 4-3 their last 7 and 3-0 their last 3.

I think the Rays are about due for shit to not go their way.

Vegas is giving Cease a 36% chance of winning.  I say considering bullpens, White Sox have closer to a 45% chance of winning with Cease.

White Sox for the win here +171.  But if you bet a big dog like this, you have to expect to lose the bet today.

It is interesting, average starting pitching score is 51 but median pitching score is 52.5 (median, meaning 50% of pitching scores are under 52.5 and 50% are over).

When a pitcher scores over 52.5 the team he is starting for will get the win 69% of the time.  Same applies to going under 52.5... a team who's pitcher scores under 52.5 will lose 69% of the time.

If you could figure out which pitcher will score over or under the mystical 52.5 you can clean up.  On my spreadsheet, starting pitchers who scored over 52.5 are 15,294-6,805 (69.2%) and +8,811.91 units over 9 years (2010 thru 2018).  That's nearly 1,000 units per regular season.  But to do that, you'd have to ace the pitching scores before the game starts...  impossible.

So.... what do you look for in a starting pitcher?  Bounce back situation after 1 bad game?  Massive score in his last start?  What's your catalyst to make a bet?

I have been tracking a handicapping service and the plays I've seen them make on college basketball sides & totals are 85-43.  Seems pretty legit to me.

Anybody know how to calculate the odds of a sample that should be .500 going .664 over 128 bets?  Like some sort of 3 sigma event or perhaps a standard deviation type of thing?  I'd say the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 66.4% (or higher) of the time over 128 coin tosses has got to be low.

@TIPOF-THE-SWORD

 Subway series!!!