The Los Angeles Angels (26-42) and San Francisco Giants (34-35) begin a three-game weekend series at Oracle Park tonight.
The home team is expected to come out on top according to MLB odds, and my Angels vs. Giants predictions expect San Francisco's offense to feast against left-handed starter Tyler Anderson.
Read more in our MLB picks for Friday, June 14.
Angels vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Giants team total Over 4.5 (+126 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson has finished with an ERA below 4.35 just once in the last seven years. Take that as your context when evaluating his current 2.63 ERA through 13 starts and whether or not it will stay so depressed moving forward.
If you ask me, Anderson is due for immediate regression. His 4.66 xERA, 4.72 FIP, and 5.02 xFIP are all in line with his career numbers and are a better reflection of his true talent. He doesn’t strike batters out (16% K%), issues too many walks (9.9% BB%), and has allowed a 9.8% barrel rate — the second-highest number of his career.
So... how has the southpaw skated by thus far? Anderson is running an unsustainably low .218 BABIP, which is well off from his .284 career number and is a clear outlier. The same can be said for his 86.6% left on base %, nearly 20 points higher than a year ago (67.2%).
The San Francisco Giants will happily dole out some regression to Anderson’s line. They’ve feasted against left-handed pitching this year with a 117 wRC+ (seventh) and a .327 wOBA (eighth). Isolate for the last 20 days and it’s clear that SF is on a heater, posting a 141 wRC+ and a .362 wOBA against southpaws.
Bob Melvin has the luxury of sending out a lineup with at least eight right-handed bats. Once the bullpen comes into play, the Angels will still be in trouble as they have a miserable 5.17 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The weather forecast calls for winds of 23 mph blowing out to right-center field, which is another concern for Anderson and his 24th-percentile groundball rate.
Considering the damage they've been inflicting on southpaws, I’m targeting the Giants to score more than 4.5 runs at +126 odds. Be sure to shop around as there’s currently a fair amount of variation across books.
Angels vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants team total Over 4.5
Wilmer Flores 2+ total bases
Giants -1.5
Wilmer Flores has found great success against Anderson in the past. He’s 7-for-19 in his career against the southpaw with a 1.008 OPS and should have every opportunity for another successful day at the dish.
The Giants will be utilizing a bullpen game for tonight's contest. Spencer Howard (2.03 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 3.45 FIP) is expected to eat up most of the innings, and he’s been surprisingly effective this season. The Angels have been dreadful against right-handed pitching lately with a 76 wRC+ and .276 wOBA across the last 15 days, so I see a lot of advantages for the home team.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Angels vs Giants odds
Angels vs Giants live odds
Angels vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-170) | San Francisco -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +120 | San Francisco -140
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Angels vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Giants have dominated this series, winning seven of the last 10 matchups. All of those wins have come by at least five runs, which makes the run line an appealing option.
- The Angels are just 18-36 when facing a right-handed starter this season.
- If playing the total, consider that the Giants have hit the Over in 18 of their last 28 games while the Angels have hit the Over in 25 of their last 45 contests.
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Angels vs Giants trend
The Giants have scored at least five runs in four of their last five games against a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Giants
Angels vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 6-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Angels starting pitcher: | Tyler Anderson (5-6, 2.63 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Spencer Howard (0-0, 2.03 ERA) |
Angels vs Giants latest injuries
Angels vs Giants weather
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