The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels will open a series in the Bronx this evening.
It's August, and like most Augusts over the last few seasons, it means very little for the Angels who are well out of playoff contention. Things couldn't be much more different for the Yankees, who are locked in a highly competitive battle to win the AL East crown.
Read on for my free Angels vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, August 6, where I see Jazz Chisholm staying hot vs. a disinterested L.A. team.
Angels vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Jazz Chisholm Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
After making an immediate impact in his first three games with the New York Yankees, Jazz Chisholm has cooled down a bit. In his last three games, he's hit .182 and only gone Over this prop once. So why make it my best bet? He's due, and my projections show a 7% edge on this number.
"He's due" is massively overused because you're only "due" to return somewhat to the historical form of a large sample size. It's not a foolproof handicap, but it at least offers some critical context. For Jazz, that context is that he hits this prop at around a 60% clip. Of course, there's a ton more to like here, and the matchup is favorable.
For starters, this handedness matchup has troubled Los Angeles Angels hurler Davis Daniel. He's bounced back and forth between the majors, so we only have a little data on him, but we know he's been a groundball pitcher who has started to give up more hard hits lately. That's particularly problematic against left-handed hitters like Chisholm. Left-handed hitters have now posted a 33% clip against Daniel instead of a 22% clip for righties this season. That's not insignificant against a hitter with as much power as Chisholm.
The second part of this is just a product of where Chisholm will be in the lineup, which is fifth or sixth behind some of the best power in baseball.
I've written extensively about the Yankees having two of the best fastball hitters in baseball in Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Unsurprisingly, they rank No. 1 and 2 in run value against those pitches and are both Top 10 in most metrics against them. Chisholm should be able to benefit from their presence in the lineup.
Unlike betting Judge or Soto to go Over their total bases line, we still stand to profit if the Angels' staff elects to pitch around one or both of them. That's one of my favorite parts of this type of bet. There's too much to like here to pass up on this spot.
Angels vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 RBI
Juan Soto Over 0.5 runs
My best bet isn't available for same-game parlays, but I've found a sufficient prop to supplement things. The reasoning is pretty simple and analyzed above. We'll pair that with Soto to score a run. These are highly correlated.
Soto has a variety of ways to get on base this evening, whether taking advantage of a heavy fastball pitcher or simply drawing a walk because of the fear of him at the plate. I like him to be in plenty of advantageous spots to cross the dish this evening.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Angels vs Yankees odds
Angels vs Yankees live odds
Angels vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (+110) | New York -1.5 (-130)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +240 | New York -295
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Angels vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- These matchups have tended to be low-scoring. Just three of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have gone Over the total.
- New York has been rolling. They've won seven of their last 10 and scored many runs over the stretch, yielding bettors +3.2 units in profit.
- Los Angeles has lost six of its last 10 games, which has resulted in a net loss of just over two units.
- Oddly enough, L.A. has had a slight advantage in these head-to-head matchups recently, with a 6-4 record across the last 10 games.
Angels vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 44 of their last 69 games (+18.20 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Yankees.
Angels vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSW, YES |
| Angels starting pitcher: | Davis Daniel (1-2, 4.91 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (11-5, 3.20 ERA) |
Angels vs Yankees latest injuries
Angels vs Yankees weather
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