We have a good one to finish off the weekend when the Houston Astros finish up a four-game set with the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday Night Baseball.
Houston will be looking for a series split and that's exactly what our Astros vs. Orioles predictions expect from tonight's game. Read more in our MLB picks below. Be sure to also check out our SNB prop picks.
Astros vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Astros -1.5 (+145 at bet365)
My analysis
I love the Houston Astros in this spot and have elected to split my bets across the moneyline and run line. However, the true value is on the run line at an attractive price of +145. I projected this at +110, a sizable edge, so it's my best bet.
Yuesi Kikuchi will pitch for Houston today and his new team has improved his performance. He's thrown offspeed pitches more often since arriving in the Lonestar State. Perhaps that's set the foundation for what we've seen.
That foundation has seen him give up less than three earned runs in four of his last five starts, including two meetings against the Yankees. That, in particular, is what builds confidence here. There are two teams on par with the Yankees' power metrics, one of those being the Baltimore Orioles.
The Yankees struggled to get runs against this new-look Kikuchi, which is promising for him today, mainly when this is a Baltimore team that's been slightly below average against offspeed stuff this season.
On the other side is Dean Kremer, and he might be the pitcher I've had the best feel for this season. Fading him at the right time or backing him at the right time has been good for me. Today screams fade for a variety of reasons. His barrel rate is in the Bottom 4% of baseball and that's a problem against the Astros.
This lineup has a ton of power, which is probably why Houston is fourth overall in barrel rate in August. I like that to continue today. This opinion is strengthened more by Kremer almost exclusively throwing all fastballs at this point.
Depending on what lineup we see from Houston today, it could have up to four players with a slugging percentage above .600 against the fastball and five with a hard-hit rate above 55%. That feels like a nightmare for Kremer, given the surrounding metrics.
Give me Houston to rack up the runs and cool off the Baltimore bats. Kikuchi has been in great form lately and there's no reason why it can't continue. Meanwhile, Kremer's fastball-heavy approach should give him some serious issues.
Astros vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Astros -1.5
Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 home runs
We'll go for a bit of a bomb here, given our thoughts above. We're pairing Yainer Diaz to hit a homer with our best bet. He's increased his barrel rate by almost 5% over the last few weeks and has started to play well. That's not all, though.
All things considered, there probably isn't a better fastball hitter on the team. He ranks first in hard-hit rate against the four-seamer and first in hard-hit rate against the cutter amongst Astros hitters.
Add that to the fact he's in the 81st percentile in the opposite field rate; we love this spot today. Particularly when, as noted by our MLB player props projection page, Camden Yards has the league's shallowest right field wall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Orioles odds
Astros vs Orioles live odds
Astros vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston -110 | Baltimore -110
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+136) | Baltimore +1.5 (-164)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Astros vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Astros have been average over the previous 10 games, with a 5-5 record that's yielded bettors a small loss.
- Before this series, Baltimore was mired in an ugly stretch but has won back-to-back games in this series, getting them to 5-5 over their last 10.
- This has been a completely even series recently. The two teams have a 5-5 record against each other over the last 10 meetings and the total is also 5-5 to the Over.
- Bettors don't have much conviction on a side or total here. We've seen minimum movement in the market and the moneyline bets are essentially evenly split.
Astros vs Orioles trend
The Astros have covered the run line in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.85 units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Orioles.
Astros vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (6-9, 4.37 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (6-9, 4.30 ERA) |
Astros vs Orioles latest injuries
Astros vs Orioles weather
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