Astros vs Orioles Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Rutschman Comes Out Swinging

Prop bet #1: Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 total bases

+135 at bet365

Yusei Kikuchi gets the nod for the Houston Astros. He’s been decently effective this season but can be beaten by right-handed bats, so I’m looking to fade him with the right matchups.

Kikuchi has allowed a .269 BA and 1.34 WHIP to righties while ranking in the seventh percentile in average exit velocity (90.7 mph) and the sixth percentile in hard-hit rate (45.6%).

Adley Rutschman has some appealing plus-money odds to record two or more total bases, considering he’ll be hitting from the right side of the plate. The star catcher avoids strikeouts and usually keeps the ball in play, which is the type of profile I’m looking for against Kikuchi.

Rutschman has destroyed LHP with a 169 wRC+ and .405 wOBA. On a warm evening with slight winds blowing out to left field, I can’t pass up the opportunity.

Prop bet #2: Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 total bases

+130 at bet365

Some players appeal to your fancy because they’re inordinately good at their craft. Some are fun, some are quirky, and some create moments that become lifetime memories.

Sometimes what stands out most is a player simply has a really cool name. That’s the case with Ryan Mountcastle, a young slugger who I can’t help cheering on due primarily to his unique last name and, of course, his resume against LHP.

The first baseman has been very effective against lefties, posting a .290 BA and 124 wRC+. He crushes both of Kikuchi’s most-used pitches, posting a .499 xSLG against four-seamers and a .504 xSLG against curveballs.

Prop bet #3: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI

-145 at bet365

Hitters' performance against opposing pitchers can be a useful way of handicapping player props, but it can also create noise and cause one to overreact to a small sample size.

I’m not ignoring Jose Altuve’s history against Dean Kremer. This is one of those times where I’m forced to give some credence to the batter’s work and acknowledge he must have figured out something for how the opposing pitcher clicks.

In 11 previous at bats against Kremer, the veteran has collected seven hits — good for a .636 BA and a 1.818 OPS. 

I’m going to target Altuve to record Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI. He’s found great success in this matchup in the past and can hit the Over in a variety of ways.