The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers went the distance in last season's American League Championship Series, with Texas taking the series in seven tough games.
Texas won Game 1 of their three-game series and expects righty Jon Gray to take the hill as a slight MLB odds favorite to beat righty J.P. France and Houston.
Can the Astros pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks for Astros vs. Rangers on Saturday, April 6.
Astros vs Rangers odds
Astros vs Rangers predictions
They say everything is bigger in Texas, and if the last seven meetings between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers indicate what is to come, we should see another exciting ballgame tonight.
Each of their previous seven meetings has seen a minimum of nine runs scored, and last’s nights' ballgame saw a dozen runs cross the plate in a 10-2 Rangers victory.
It gave Texas its third consecutive victory over their AL West rival and sent Houston to its sixth loss in its last seven games. Things could turn around today as they face a struggling veteran against whom they’ve had success and is coming off a rough Opening Day start.
Rangers starter Jon Gray was outstanding down last season’s stretch run for Texas but his spring was less than ideal, and that carried over into his season opener as the veteran righty lasted just 3 2/3 frames against the Cubs, scattering seven hits with three punchouts. He will have a difficult time striking out five Astros tonight.
The Astros bats haven’t been great to begin the season, but they still boast a low strikeout rate, as their 16.8% strikeout rate this season against righties is fourth in baseball. They’ve had collective and individual success against Gray, which should continue tonight.
The Astros’ bats need to wake up. They’ve slashed .255/.346/.372/.718 with 24 hits and 22 strikeouts over 94 career at-bats and should get to Gray before he can reach five strikeouts. Gray struggled through the spring with some sort of neck injury that carried over into his first start of the season, and the Cubs barreled up a whopping 18% of his pitches with a 61% hard-hit rate.
Tonight, Gray meets a struggling Houston offense with extra motivation after a horrible offensive start to their season and getting embarrassed on Friday. Look for Houston to get rolling early and for Gray to end his night Under 4.5 strikeouts.
My best bet: Jon Gray Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120 at bet365)
Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay
Jon Gray Under 4.5 strikeouts
Chas McCormick 1+ hit
Astros FF moneyline
Our three-leg same-game parlay has nice odds and correlates well with my best bet.
Houston outfielder Chas McCormick is 5-for-7 lifetime with four RBI against Gray. He saw his four-game hitting streak snapped last night, but his history against the veteran righty should give him the confidence to begin a new hitting streak tonight.
Astros starter J.P. France has a good history against this collection of Rangers bats and pitched decently in his season opener against the Yankees. He struck out five Yankees with one walk and three earned runs over 5 2/3 frames but didn’t factor in the 4-3 loss to New York. Look for Houston to get to Gray early and France to do enough to eke out a five-inning victory.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Astros vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Houston opened as a -116 favorite, but the markets reacted to this number, and this game is a -110 “pick 'em” across the industry.
- Over 9.5 is the predominant side of the total market, with odds ranging from -120 to -125. FanDuel is offering Over 10 (-110).
- The Under markets are where the value is, as you’ll find even money to -105 on Under 9.5, while FanDuel offers Under 10 (-110).
Trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Gray's last four home starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers
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Astros vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, April 6, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, BSSWX |
Starting pitchers
J.P. France (0-0, 4.77 ERA): Astros righty J.P. France scattered six hits with five punchouts across 5 ⅔ frames in a no-decision against the Yankees. The second-year right-hander is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a low walk and 1.20 bombs per nine.
Jon Gray (0-0, 12.27 ERA): Texas Rangers righty Jon Gray was awesome down the stretch for the Rangers, but his season is off to a rough start. The veteran righty allowed five earned runs with a pair of strikeouts across 3 2/3 frames in his home opener.
