The second installment of this AL West series gets underway this evening with the Texas Rangers hosting the Houston Astros at Globe Life Park. MLB odds have Houston as a slight -118 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Astros vs. Rangers predictions are optimistic on the underdog, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Astros vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Rangers moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Left-hander Framber Valdez takes the mound for the Houston Astros tonight. On the surface, the southpaw has put together a solid campaign thus far, posting a 10-5 record with a 3.56 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
With that said, regression is likely looming based on his underlying metrics. Valdez possesses a 3.85 xERA and ranks in the second percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, right-hander Tyler Mahle makes his season debut for the Texas Rangers tonight. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery after his dominating start in 2023, posting a 3.16 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through five starts while ranking in the league's top half in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and walk rate.
While that is a small sample size, his 23-game portfolio from 2022 is also strong. He finished that season ranking in the 65th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate.
Mahle's rehab assignments with Triple-A Round Rock have also gone well, so I am optimistic about his return to form for this matchup. Through 33 combined career plate appearances against the Rangers hurler, this current Astros lineup possesses a mere .204 xBA, .264 xSLG, and .202 xwOBA.
Back the defending champs at plus money in this one.
Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Rangers moneyline
Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 strikeouts
Marcus Semien Over 0.5 hits
Mahle ranked in the 60th percentile in both whiff rate and 65th percentile in strikeout rate in 2022. Through five starts in 2023, he posted a 31.8% chase rate and a 27.5% strikeout rate, and he’s also recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his two career outings against Houston.
Meanwhile, star infielder Marcus Semien boasts a dominating .324 BA, .529 SLG, and .413 wOBA through 40 career plate appearances against Valdez. The second baseman has also recorded at least one hit in 13 of his last 15 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Rangers odds
Astros vs Rangers live odds
Astros vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+120) | Texas +1.5 (-144)
- Moneyline: Houston -136 | Texas -116
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-122)
Astros vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston opened as a -136 favorite and has since been bet down to -118.
- The Rangers have hit the moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI).
- The total opened at 8.5 and remains at that price at the time of writing.
Astros vs Rangers trend
Houston has lost six of its past eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers.
Astros vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, BSSW |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (10-5, 3.56 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Tyler Mahle (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Astros vs Rangers latest injuries
Astros vs Rangers weather
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