Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Thursday, October 3.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: October 3
Quintana u4.5 hits allowed (-105)
Myers u4.5 hits allowed (-145)
Today’s best SP angles
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers
The angle: Both teams are going to empty the tanks in the bullpen.
There is no reason for either team to run their starters long unless they are dealing, which still favors the Under 4.5 hits for both pitchers.
Tobias Myers didn't have a long leash to begin with down the stretch as the rookie was setting career-highs in innings pitched. He went exactly 12 outs in three straight games to end the season including a a 56-pitch one-hit outing vs. these New York Mets in his last start.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen will get used today and Myers' Under 4.5 hits allowed is a buy for me up to -155. He projects for Under 4.00 hits allowed on 72 pitches, per THE BAT.
On the other side, Jose Quintana Under 4.5 hits allowed at -105 is a more reasonable buy. He projects for 4.3 hits allowed on 79 pitches but that might be his ceiling. Over his last 10 starts, he has allowed just 0.8 hits per inning and Milwaukee is one of the lighter-hitting lineups in the playoffs.
Luis Severino went over 100 pitches in the series opener but that was an extension of the bullpen's workload in Monday's doubleheader. The pen is reset and the Mets might only need Quintana for 12 outs as they need to get guys like Edwin Diaz the ball as the closer has not even made an appearance in the series.
If either starter falters early, both managers will have a Plan B ready as neither club wants the same fate as the Braves yesterday as they left Max Fried in to get shelled in the second inning.
It's a play on low volume and with no outs markets to exploit.
The move: Jose Quintana Under 4.5 hits allowed (-117 at Caesars)
The move: Tobias Myers Under 4.5 hits allowed (-150 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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