The Houston Astros will try to build on a two-game winning streak as they host the Atlanta Braves on Monday night.
The Braves hold a two-game lead in the NL East, while the Astros are off to a disappointing start, and are slight home underdogs to Atlanta in the MLB odds.
Atlanta has been scoring runs as well as anyone in the majors, and with two untested starters on the mound tonight, our MLB picks feel there should be plenty of opportunities to add to that total. We’ll break down the matchup in our free Braves vs. Astros predictions for Monday, April 15.
Braves vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Over 10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
While the Atlanta Braves offense will inevitably slow down a little bit, there’s no denying this is among the most potent offenses in baseball. Atlanta is averaging 6.50 runs per game – tied for best in the majors – and the Braves are hitting .301 as a team so far on the year.
There’s no one player to break down on the Atlanta offense, as this team can attack opposing pitchers from any angle. Jarred Kelenic is hitting .414, while Marcell Ozuna already has seven homers and 21 RBIs. Seven regular starters have an OPS over .800 on the season, and even Ronald Acuna Jr. is finally starting to hit, though his .273 average and .712 OPS look out of place in this lineup.
While few teams compare to Atlanta, the Houston Astros can hit a bit themselves. Houston is averaging 4.71 runs per game, with Jose Altuve (.382, 5 HR, 14 runs), Yordan Alvarez (.317, 4 HR, 12 RBIs) and Jeremy Pena (.348, 2 HR, 8 RBIs) all off to fast starts.
With these two lineups, runs are to be expected. Sportsbooks have anticipated a high-scoring game, setting the total at 10.5 runs tonight. Yet there’s reason to believe this game should go even higher.
Both teams are sending starters to the hill with very little MLB experience. The Astros are turning to Spencer Arrighetti, a 24-year-old righty who allowed seven runs on seven hits over just three innings in his first major league start.
The Braves are countering with Darius Vines, who went 1-0 with a 3.98 ERA in five appearances last year. The 25-year-old Vines is considered a strong prospect in the Braves system and has put up a 3.75 ERA for Triple-A Gwinnett in 12 innings of work this year. But he remains untested against MLB competition, let alone a team with the offensive talent of the Astros.
The clear trend for both teams is for high-scoring games. The Astros have played to double-digit totals in each of their last five outings, while the Braves have done so in six of their last nine. Both teams have been hitting the Over with regularity for bettors over the past week or so as well.
Given the pitching matchup on tap tonight, there’s no reason to expect this to change. Even if one of these pitchers steps up, it’s unlikely that both teams will be held in check. I’m taking the Over.
Braves vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 10.5
Braves moneyline
Marcell Ozuna to record an RBI
30% boost available
I love the Over tonight, and the Braves should get the majority of the runs, as usual. For my same-game parlay, I’ll take the Braves to win on the moneyline. I’ll also take Ozuna to knock in at least one run, as he has already accumulated 21 RBIs and picked up at least one in five of his last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Astros odds
Braves vs Astros live odds
Braves vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+135) | Houston +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -109 | Houston +101
- Over/Under: Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110)
Braves vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened as a -120 favorite. As of Monday afternoon, the consensus moneyline is Braves -115, with -102 offered on the Astros.
- The Braves are even on the moneyline this year, while Houston is down more than seven units for bettors.
- The total on tonight’s game was set at 10 runs flat. The consensus Over/Under has moved to 10.5 runs, with -110 offered on both sides of the line.
- The Over is 10-3 when the Braves play this season, while it has gone an even 8-8 in Houston’s games.
Braves vs Astros trend
The Over is 5-0 in Houston’s last five games, and 5-1 in Atlanta’s last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Astros
Braves vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 4-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Home Network, Bally Sports Southeast |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (1-0, 0.75 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (0-1, 21.00 ERA) |
Braves vs Astros latest injuries
Braves vs Astros weather
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