This afternoon serves up a rubber match between the top team in the NL Wild Card standings and the Central Division leader.
The Atlanta Braves enter as -130 road favorites in the moneyline odds over the Milwaukee Brewers, and our Braves vs Brewers predictions like Atlanta’s advantage on the mound.
Read on to find out how that affects Wednesday’s MLB picks.
Braves vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Braves -1.5 (+140 at DraftKings)
My analysis
After losing six of seven out of the All-Star break, the Atlanta Braves have righted the ship, winning three of their last four.
They turn to ace Chris Sale to close out their series against the Milwaukee Brewers — he’s coming off a season-best 7 1/3 innings pitched against the Mets. Though he came away with no decision, Sale gave up just two hits and two earned runs, while striking out nine.
He’s been remarkably consistent: Sale has now allowed two earned runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts — a huge help for a Braves team that ranks 21st in runs scored.
Milwaukee has been treading since the midseason break, failing to string together more than two wins in a row, but avoiding anything more than two losses in a row either. No one in the Central has been able to make a move during this middling stretch, as the Brewers sit a comfortable six games up on the nearest competitors.
One of Milwaukee’s strengths is its ability to win multiple ways, ranking inside the Top 8 in both runs scored and team ERA. The Brew Crew turns to Freddy Peralta against the Braves. He’s struggled in the month of July, going 0-2 in four starts, surrendering at least three earned runs in three of them.
Last time out, he was chased after 5 1/3 innings against the Marlins, giving up six hits, three earned runs, including two home runs in a 6-2 loss. Peralta walked five batters, the third time this year he’s hit that total.
While the Braves aren’t anywhere near as potent offensively as in years past, they haven’t had any problems plating runs against the Brewers, averaging 6.8 runs per game over the last six.
Atlanta should be able to stake Sale to some kind of a lead, and that should be enough for the Braves to roll. Each of Atlanta’s last seven wins against Milwaukee has come by at least two runs.
Braves vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves -1.5
Chris Sale Under 4.5 hits allowed
Willy Adames Over 0.5 hits
Sale has been able to keep the run count low lately because he’s been limiting the hits against, which is why the veteran lefty’s hit line of 4.5 for Wednesday is worth rolling into a same-game parlay.
Sale has allowed four hits or less in five of his last six outings, including going Under the line in five of his last seven road starts.
Given his current hot streak and road work, there's potential to dominate. Sale carries a 2.66 ERA on the road, and home teams are hitting just .194 against him — both Top-8 marks in baseball.
While he will be good, there will still be hits, and Willy Adames needs one to turn this ticket into a winner. He opened the series with a 3-for-4 effort as part of the Brewers’ 8-3 win, and picked up another hit in Atlanta’s win Tuesday.
Adames has had all of one hit in eight career at-bats against Sale, which was a home run.
However, his best hitting split is at American Family Field, where he carries a .265 average.
Adames has been even better recently. He has hits in eight of his last 11 home games, going 15-for-44, a crisp .341 clip.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Brewers odds
Braves vs Brewers live odds
Braves vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+140) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -125 | Milwaukee +105
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)
Braves vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta is 6-1 in the last seven games vs. Milwaukee as a betting favorite.
- The Brewers are 31-20 at home this season.
- The Over has cashed in four of the last five meetings.
- Milwaukee has an Over record of 3-1-1 in its last five.
Braves vs Brewers trend
The Braves have lost five straight as road favorites against NL Central opponents following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers
Braves vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (13-3, 2.68 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (6-6, 3.94 ERA) |
Braves vs Brewers latest injuries
Braves vs Brewers weather
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