The first installment of this NL series gets underway this evening with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Atlanta Braves at American Family Field.
MLB odds have Milwaukee as a slight -126 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5. My Braves vs. Brewers prediction is optimistic on the underdog, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, July 29.
Braves vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Braves moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers hand the ball to right-hander Colin Rea, who is a prime regression candidate. Despite posting a 3.60 ERA through 20 appearances this season, Rea possesses a 4.88 xERA and ranks in the 26th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate.
This expected regression could come to fruition against the Atlanta Braves, a team that shelled Rea in the last meeting. The right-hander surrendered five runs on five hits through five innings of work en route to an 8-6 loss.
Meanwhile, right-hander Grant Holmes makes his first MLB start for Atlanta. He’s been brilliant out of the bullpen, posting a 2.70 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 10 appearances.
I’m not worried about his transition to the starting role, since Holmes has consistently operated as a long reliever. While he does not officially qualify, the right-handers' analytics are among the best in baseball.
Holmes would rank in the top quarter of the league in xERA, walk rate, and barrel rate.
Not only do the Braves have the starting pitching advantage, but they also boast a stronger bullpen. Atlanta’s relief pitching outranks Milwaukee’s in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
Braves vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves moneyline
Over 8.5
Austin Riley Over 0.5 hits
The only reason Atlanta is catching plus-money is because Milwaukee has the stronger lineup (not something anyone would have said before the season). However, both teams are more than capable of putting up big runs as each club ranks in the top half of the league in SLG.
If we are backing the Braves to win in a high-scoring affair, then a highly correlated outcome would be for Austin Riley to record at least one hit in the process. He is 1-for-2 in his career against Rea with a homer and has recorded at least one hit in 10 of his past 16 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Brewers odds
Braves vs Brewers live odds
Braves vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-200) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+164)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +108 | Milwaukee -126
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Braves vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -126 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I believe this line will drop closer to a pick ‘em, due to all the aforementioned variables
- The total opened and remains at 8.5.
- It is far more likely that this total moves to nine rather than eight, given Rea’s poor underlying metrics and the uncertainty of Holmes’ first game in a starting role.
Bet on baseball at FanDuel, Get MLB.TV free!
Opt-in place a bet of $5+ on any MLB market until July 30 — and get a free subscription to MLB.TV until September 1!
FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
Braves vs Brewers trend
Atlanta has won each of the past four meetings between these two clubs. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers
Braves vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Monday, 7-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Grant Holmes (0-0, 2.70 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (9-3, 3.60 ERA) |
Braves vs Brewers latest injuries
Braves vs Brewers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
