The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres square off in Game 2 of their NL Wild Card series tonight.
San Diego blanked Atlanta 4-0 in Game 1 but my Braves vs. Padres predictions expect the visitors to bounce back and send this series to a decisive third game.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this postseason clash on October 2.
Braves vs Padres prediction
Who will win Braves vs Padres Game 2?
The Atlanta Braves struggled to get anything going offensively in Game 1 but their injury-depleted lineup isn't nearly as bad as they looked in that contest. This is an experienced squad with the resilience not to get swept in the first round and they'll have a better pitcher on the mound today in southpaw Max Fried.
The Padres have struggled against left-handed starters all year which puts the Braves in a good spot to bounce back with a win here as slim underdogs.
My Braves vs Padres best bet
Braves moneyline (+105 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Braves clearly miss Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley but they've been playing without the former since May while the latter has been sidelined since mid-August and they've still generally performed better than they did yesterday.
Keep in mind that over the last 30 days, the Braves are batting .254 while ranking fifth in the majors in OPS (.754), so expect a bounce-back performance after getting shut out last night.
On the hill, the Braves are in a far better place than they were yesterday when they had to stick largely untested 21-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver on the mound. Two-time All-Star Fried and his 3.25 ERA will toe the rubber.
Fried does a great job of forcing weak contact ranking in the top fifth percentile in exit velocity in ground ball rate. He's been red-hot lately, pitching to a 2.39 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and an OBA of .207 over his last eight starts. Atlanta also has an excellent bullpen behind Fried with their relievers third in the majors in ERA (3.32) and first in SIERA (3.27).
The San Diego Padres led the majors in batting average (.263) and were sixth in OPS (.744) during the regular season but those numbers plummeted to .239 and .690 against lefties. With San Diego struggling against southpaws and Atlanta in a desperation spot, look for the Braves to pick up the win in Game 2.
Braves vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves moneyline
Under 6.5
Joe Musgrove Over 5.5 strikeouts
Postseason baseball generally sees fewer runs and with this game taking place at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, another lower-scoring contest seems likely.
I liked the Under when it first opened at 7 and I'll still gladly play the Under 6.5 in this SGP. The Padres are giving the pill to Joe Musgrove, who struggled earlier in the year but has been lights out lately.
Since coming off the IL in August, Musgrove has pitched to a 2.15 with a 0.87 WHIP across nine starts. Musgrove has struck out 6+ batters in seven of his last eight starts. The Braves struck out a whopping 15 times last night and rank 22nd in the majors in strikeout rate (24.2%)
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Padres odds
Braves vs Padres live odds
Braves vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +100 | San Diego -120
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-205) | San Diego -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Braves vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- With both teams boasting red-hot starters, early money came in on the Under, shifting the total from 7 to 6.5 (shaded towards the Over at -120).
- Early money came in on the Padres moving their ML from -120 to -130 but buyback on the Braves has bought it back down to -120 at most books as of 10 a.m. ET.
- The Padres have gone 44-19 since the All-Star break and finished the regular season tied with the Brewers for the fourth-best record in the majors at 93-69.
- The Braves finished the regular season with an 89-73 record and have gone 8-4 in their last 12 games.
Braves vs Padres Game 2 info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (11-10, 3.25 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Joe Musgrove (6-5, 3.88 ERA) |
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Braves vs Padres weather
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