The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have split the first two of their three-game set, and the rubber match goes down at Wrigley Field this afternoon.
Chicago sends lefty Justin Steele to the hill, and he’s coming off one of his worst starts of the year with the Arizona Diamondbacks plating five runs across just 4 2/3 innings. My Brewers vs. Cubs predictions expect Steele to be sharper this afternoon, and my free MLB picks call for the southpaw to hold the Milwaukee bats in check
Brewers vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Brewers team total Under 3.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The wind is forecast to be blowing in at Wrigley Field today, and Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele is ripe for a rebound start following the noted hiccup last time out. Even with Friday’s tough outing, he’s allowed just 15 earned runs across his past 10 starts for a 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 2.36 FIP.
Steele’s 3.41 xFIP during the heater suggests there’s been some good fortune, but he’s pitched to an identical 3.41 mark across 264 1/3 innings dating back to the beginning of last season. For perspective, Steele’s 3.06 ERA and 3.41 xFIP over the past two years respectively rank seventh and 11th among starting pitchers with at least 200 innings.
As a result, the minor peaks and valleys to Steele’s surface and underlying numbers don’t carry significant weight given the long-standing quality of his body of work.
The Milwaukee Brewers also haven’t been as dangerous against left-handed pitchers or on the road this season, dropping in wOBA and wRC+ in both splits.
| Brewers | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|
| Home | .332 | 115 |
| Road | .313 | 102 |
| vs. RHP | .323 | 110 |
| vs. LHP | .317 | 104 |
Finally, I also value this FanDuel price because the Brewers Under 3.5 runs prop is trading at -130 via bet365. It’s not a huge edge, but the difference does attach a positive expected value of 3% to the -122 FanDuel odds.
Brewers vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers TT Under 3.5
Justin Steele Over 5.5 strikeouts
Justin Steele to record the win
There has been action to the Under 5.5 strikeouts for Steele that aligns with the Brewers striking out against lefties at the 11th-lowest rate (21.1%) in baseball. Still, I like the opposite side for this same-game parlay because Steele has six or more punchouts in six of his past 10 starts.
The final leg of this SGP aligns with my best bet and the Cubs being the betting favorite. I expect Steele to be sharp and pitch deep enough for the Chicago offense to put runs on the board. Additionally, I’ve also been encouraged by the turnaround from the Chicago bullpen in July. The Cubs rank first in ERA (1.34) and sixth in xFIP (3.46) across 60 1/3 innings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Brewers vs Cubs live odds
Brewers vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-185) | Chicago -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +120 | Chicago -140
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Brewers vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- This moneyline hasn’t seen a major adjustment, and with the Brewers likely to use an opener, I’m not expecting major future moves, either.
- Pinnacle has taken action on Milwaukee, with Chicago moving from an opening -147 favorite to -142 as of Wednesday morning.
- There has been a similar lack of movement to this total, with both Pinnacle and bet365 opening and remaining at 7.5.
- The Under has seen a 10-cent move at bet365, with the Under trading at -120 after opening at -110.
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Brewers vs Cubs trend
Justin Steele has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs
Brewers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-24-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MSN, BSN |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | TBD |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (2-4, 3.07 ERA) |
Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries
Brewers vs Cubs weather
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