It’s an NL Central showdown between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field tonight, and the two clubs are both contending for postseason spots with the stretch drive closing in.
Tobias Myers had a hell of a performance in his last outing, but my Brewers vs. Cubs predictions expect the Cubbies to ruffle his feathers early and often.
Here are my free MLB picks for this series opener at the friendly confines on July 22.
Brewers vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Tobias Myers Under 16.5 outs (-106 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers starter Tobias Myers pitched eight scoreless against the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out, so I think we’re landing a fair price on his Under outs for this road start against the Chicago Cubs. Myers has recorded 16 or fewer outs in nine of 13 starts this season, including four of his past six.
Additionally, the Cubbies roughed Myers up to the tune of four earned runs across just three innings and 62 pitches in early May. The Milwaukee righty has been solid with a 2.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 3.85 xFIP across his 11 starts since, but again, he’s rarely pitched deep into ball games. He also faced Chicago on June 29 and allowed three runs on seven hits across six frames.
There are also a couple of statistics that stand out and suggest Myers has been the beneficiary of some good fortune on the hill this season.
His 2.59 BABIP is the 24th-lowest mark among the 126 starters with at least 60 innings, and his 4.07 xFIP is considerably higher than his 3.17 ERA. Myers also has the seventh-highest left-on-base percentage (83.8%) of those 126 starters, and there’s glaring statistical correction ahead there, too.
The Cubs are also coming off a tough-luck series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Chicago mustered four runs with a .225 BABIP. I’m expecting the Cubbies to have a better showing at home tonight after posting a rock-solid .341 wOBA and 122 wRC+ across 13 July games before the All-Star break.
Finally, I also value that this is a five-star recommendation in our MLB player prop projections.
Brewers vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Tobias Myers Under 16.5 outs
Brewers Over 3.5 runs
Cubs starter Javier Assad is making just his second start since returning from a forearm strain, and it's not like he was limiting hitters before the injury, either. Assad has been rocked for a 5.59 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and 4.79 xFIP while being tagged for 10 homers across his past eight starts.
Additionally, the Brew Crew do damage against right-handed pitchers with a sixth-ranked .324 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Milwaukee has also averaged 4.87 runs per game this season and 5.13 in July.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Brewers vs Cubs live odds
Brewers vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee -1.5 (+155) | Chicago +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -110 | Chicago -110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125)
Brewers vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a notable move to the Milwaukee moneyline for Monday’s series opener. Pinnacle initially hung the Brewers at -108 and the number has moved all the way to -119 as of Monday afternoon.
- It’s been an even larger adjustment at bet365, with the Brewers moving from an opening -110 to -125.
- This total has also seen interesting action, with Pinnacle opening the market at 8.0 (+100/-112) and trading at 8.5 (+103/-115) as of Monday afternoon.
- Again, bet365 has seen similar movement but opened at 8.5 (+105/-125) before moving to an 8.0 total. The 8.0 number didn’t last, and the shop is again at 8.5 with a +100/-120 split.
Brewers vs Cubs trend
Myers has recorded 16 or fewer outs in nine of 13 starts this season, including four of his past six. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs
Brewers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Monday, 7-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports West, Marquee Sports Network |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Tobias Myers (6-3, 3.13 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (4-3, 3.14 ERA) |
Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries
Brewers vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
