A classic National League Central rivalry is looking a little one-sided these days, as the first-place Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the last-place St. Louis Cardinals.
That said, thanks to the pitching matchup which sees Sonny Gray toeing the rubber against Tobias Myers, the MLB odds have the Cardinals as favorites for tonight’s game.
Find out more as I break down my Cardinals vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, May 9.
Cardinals vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers got off to a great start this season, beginning the year with a 20-11 record thanks to some solid pitching and a lineup with surprising pop.
However, the Brew Crew has hit a bit of a rough patch lately, losing four of their last five games. Over their last two series, Milwaukee is hitting just .221 with a .664 OPS, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see that trend continue against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has been a bright spot for St. Louis this season, pitching to a 2.33 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a 2.08 expected batting average. That includes limiting this same Brewers lineup to two runs on five hits while striking out 12 in 6 1/3 innings back on April 2.
All the while, St. Louis is one of the worst-hitting teams in baseball this season, ranking 28th in batting average, 27th in OPS, and 25th in wRC+. Even a matchup against rookie hurler Tobias Myers has me wary of what they can accomplish.
For those reasons, I’m turning my attention to the total. The Brewers swept the last series in St. Louis, but two of those games went way below the total, and I expect tonight's contest to follow suit.
Cardinals vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Sonny Gray Under 4.5 hits allowed
Lars Nootbar Over 1.5 total bases
Let’s double down on Sonny Gray being successful tonight, as the right-hander is limiting opponents to a .194 batting average and giving up just 6.2 hits per nine innings. Gray has also not allowed more than five hits in a start and has held opposing teams to four or fewer in three of his five starts.
Nootbar also hit .271 with a .835 vs. right-handed pitchers last season. Considering Myers is surrendering a .869 OPS to opponents so far, I like Noot to keep trending in the right direction this evening.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Brewers odds
Cardinals vs Brewers live odds
Cardinals vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis -1.5 (+155) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-190)
- Moneyline: St. Louis -105 | Milwaukee -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Cardinals vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- When the starters were confirmed, this line jumped to Cardinals -120. They have seen the majority of the action since then, now sitting in the -150 range.
- The Cardinals have won four of the five games Gray has started, while the Brewers have lost all three times Myers' has taken the hill.
- The total for this one hit the board at 8.5 and the bettors jumped all over the Under, with the number now sitting at 7.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
- With an anemic offense and solid starting pitching, the Cardinals have been one of the best Under bets in baseball this season. The Under is also 4-1 in Gray's starts.
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Cardinals vs Brewers trend
The Cardinals have hit the game total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers
Cardinals vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSMW, BSWI |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Lance Lynn (1-0, 3.28 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Tobias Myers (0-2, 6.23 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Brewers latest injuries
Cardinals vs Brewers weather
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