The Pittsburgh Pirates’ recent hot stretch has them in the thick of the National League wild-card race and they’ll host the Central-division rival St Louis Cardinals, who they trail by two games, tonight.
With the pitching edge firmly in Pittsburgh's favor, my Cardinals vs. Pirates predictions aren't straying from the home side.
Check our free MLB picks for Monday, July 22 below.
Cardinals vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Pirates moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Pirates fell 6-0 to the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, failing to complete the weekend sweep. Still, they’ve reeled off wins in eight of the last 10, pulling them above the .500 mark at 50-49.
The Pirates have been solid on both sides of the field since before the All-Star break, ranking sixth in scoring, and putting up just a tick under 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. That’s a major improvement from a unit that ranks 24th in runs scored this season.
A solid 12th in ERA at 3.85 on the year, Pittsburgh has picked up the pace over that time as well, posting a 3.12 ERA. They send Mitch Keller to the mound tonight, looking to improve on his 10-5 mark. He’s given up a pair of earned runs in each of his last two starts, pitching 11 innings, surrendering 11 hits and three walks, while striking out nine.
Keller will face a St. Louis Cardinals side that just took two of three against the Atlanta Braves to kick off its second half.
The Cardinals offense did work, tallying 17 runs over the three-game set, including seven home runs. Andre Pallante will pitch for the Cardinals. A converted reliever, he’ll be making his 10th start for St. Louis.
While he pitched a gem against the Pirates on July 4 — going a season-best seven innings, surrendering four hits and one earned run in an eventual 3-2 St. Louis win in 10 innings — that isn't a great predictor for what will come next.
For one, that outing was before Pittsburgh's offense found a new gear. And Pallante likely won't be able to exploit one of the Pirates' key weaknesses. Pittsburgh has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in MLB but Pallante doesn't miss bats. He has 41 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings for a paltry 18.8% strikeout rate.
While several Pirates hitters can benefit, star shortstop Oneil Cruz has been especially potent against right-handers. Eleven of his 15 home runs have come against righties and he's hit .284 against them on the season. This success is magnified even further at PNC Park, where Cruz is slashing .314/.396/.585 with seven long balls and just a 26.1% strikeout rate vs. RHP.
With the Pirates settling into a groove at the plate, and Keller the more stable mound option, I like them to right the ship in this rematch with the Cardinals and Pallante, who is more smoke and mirrors than an actual dominant starting pitcher.
Cardinals vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Pirates moneyline
Andre Pallante Over 4.5 strikeouts
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 total bases
Pallante has been set with a makeable 4.5 strikeout line against Pittsburgh, and the 25-year-old righty has been consistently in this zone. Over his last six starts, Pallante has struck out at least five batters five times.
One of those starts was against these same Pirates when he struck out five. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in total strikeouts this season. So even if Pallante isn't an elite strikeout arm, this is a low enough number to target the Over.
We’ll wrap this SGP with Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds, who had gone five straight games with a hit, including four multi-hit games, before Sunday's loss to Philly. Like Cruz, the switch-hitting Reynolds performs better vs. righties, showcasing a higher OPS in these matchups than he does against southpaws (.877 vs. .762). To that point, Reynolds’ small sample against Pallante shows some pop: his two hits over 11 at-bats have both been long balls.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Pirates odds
Cardinals vs Pirates live odds
Cardinals vs Pirates opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-170) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: St. Louis +115 | Pittsburgh -135
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Cardinals vs Pirates spread and Over/Under analysis
- Pittsburgh is 24-25 at home this season.
- St. Louis has won three of its last four on the road.
- The Under has cashed in four of the last six head-to-heads.
- The Cardinals have hit the Over in four of their last six games.
Cardinals vs Pirates trend
The Pirates have won 10 of their last 11 night games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Pirates
Rays vs Yankees game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 7-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Midwest, SportsNet-Pittsburgh |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Andre Pallante (4-4, 4.21 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Mitch Keller (10-5, 3.46 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Pirates latest injuries
Cardinals vs Pirates weather
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